Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/100223
JUICE GRAPE crop down in 2012 W ashington State produced an estimated 174,000 tons of juice grapes in 2012, down from its tenyear average of 193,000 tons, according to Trent Ball, director of the vineyard and winery technology program at Yakima Valley Community College. Washington is the nation���s leading Concord and Niagara grape producer, typically producing about half of the country���s grapes that are used for juice and other food products. The nation���s Concord crop for 2012 is estimated at 294,000 tons, the smallest yield in more than a decade. Damaging frosts last spring reduced Michigan���s crop by 60 percent, and in New York and Pennsylvania, yields were less than half of normal. Even Washington���s 2012 crop was below average caused by carryover effects from an early winter freeze in 2010. Since 2008, the cash price in Washington has been above (or just slightly below) $200 per ton, and the last two years hit all-time highs of $250 in 2011 and $280 per ton last year. FruitSmart���s Gauley said that prices for nearly all juice concentrates have been very strong the last few years due to record fresh-market prices for fruits like apples. For juice grapes, he says the market is high for several reasons: ��� Processors entered the 2011 crop with low inventories and pricing at an all-time high. ��� Weather problems in 2011 and 2012 created continued tight supplies. ��� Acreage of red and white grape varieties in California used for concentrate blending is decreasing and supplies are tight. ��� Inventories of other juice concentrates are tight and at the upper end of their historical pricing. ���At some point, these prices have to come down from their current peak, and we���ll have a more normal processed market,��� Gauley said. ���It probably won���t be this year for juice grapes because there���s such a short crop, but history said we are heading into a declining market.��� Historically, juice grapes are a very cyclical industry, he says, noting that the industry has been in one of the longest cycles ever. Where the floor will go for the grape concentrate price is anybody���s guess. ���Will we see $7 per gallon for 68 Brix concentrate?��� asks Gauley. ���I���ve never seen concentrate prices higher than $14 per gallon, and we���re now at $19.50.��� California influence California produces very few Concord grapes, but growers there can have a big impact on grape concentrate prices. Thompson Seedless, a white grape variety with many uses���raisin, table, and wine���is often blended with Concord concentrate for the export market. ���Niagara, another white juice grape, is important in blending, but a lot of processors like to use Thompson because of its neutral flavor,��� said Greg MacGill of Ciatti Company, a global wine and grape brokerage based in California. Rubired, a hybrid grape developed at the University of California, Davis, is another popular choice for blending with grape concentrate because of its stable color, MacGill said. Rubired has been widely planted in the last decade and is now one of the top varieties planted in California. He added that 80 percent of the plantings have been by the E & J Gallo Winery to make sweet, red wine blends popular with young wine drinkers. A shortage of white juice concentrate and demand for Rubired have pushed Thompson and Rubired grower prices to $325 per ton, more than double the $155 per ton prices in 2007, MacGill said. White grape concentrate www.goodfruit.com ���The last three years, we���ve seen steep, climbing prices, and there���s been seven consecutive years of rising prices,��� Ball said during the annual meeting of the Washington State Grape Society in Grandview. ���All indications are that prices are nearing the peak, and, based on the industry���s cyclical nature, prices will be heading downward soon.��� Imports of single-strength juice and concentrate were around 65 million gallons in 2011, and Ball predicts a similar number will be imported again in 2012. Argentina is the largest U.S. importer, accounting for about 70 percent of the volume. ���Argentina is reported to be in short supply, as well as California,��� he said, which will keep prices holding as there isn���t a lot of supply available. In the short term, Ball forecasts juice inventories will remain low and New York will have a big crop if normal weather returns. He predicts the cash price for 2013 will be similar or slightly higher than last year���s record price, but for the long term, he sees prices coming down. ���M. Hansen prices, normally in the $14 to $15 per gallon range, are $19 to $20 per gallon. California growers have removed about a third of the Thompson Seedless acreage, taking out 68,000 acres in the last decade as they switched to more profitable crops, according to MacGill. ���Acreage removal continues at a rate of about two to four percent annually. There���s a short supply of grapes in California and great competition for the remaining grapes. ��� MacGill said growers must hit yields of 15 to 20 tons per acre for Thompsons to be profitable. Many are replacing older Thompson vineyards with almonds, a crop that costs half as much to plant ($3,500 an acre compared to $7,000), requires less water, and can return twice the profit. ���For all grapes, we���re thin on inventory, and though we had a good harvest, we need to put juice back in the tanks,��� MacGill said. ���And with a lot of growers not replanting grapes with grapes, we���ll be short on inventories for a while.��� Retail Grandview juice grape grower Tim Grow, who���s also on the board of directors of the National Grape Cooperative Association that produces Welch���s juice and food products, said the retail juice market is under pressure from a variety of factors. The juice category is down in volume by 9 percent and in total dollars by 4 percent from the previous year. ���The sales trends of 100 percent juices are the worst, with volume down by 11 percent, but all juices are suffering from the weak economy and more consumers drinking bottled water,��� said Grow, pointing to retail juice market data collected by SymphonyIRI. He added that Welch���s grape juice has grown slightly in volume, but at the expense of stealing consumers from minor brands and private labels. In the 100 percent juice segment, Welch���s has a majority of the brand market, and increased dollar sales and volume from the previous year by 3 and 4 percent, respectively. ���But we���re not adding consumers to the category, and the 100 percent juice consumption is declining,��� said Grow. ���Grape juice is also declining because it���s the highest priced of all juices.��� He notes that Welch���s continues to market and innovate aggressively to maintain market share for Concord grapes, but the juice market is contracting. ���New consumption will need to come from new markets, such as new foreign markets,��� he concluded. ��� Representing Leading Nurseries Since 1990 KRYMSK��1 (cv. VVA1) USPP 15,995 Rootstock for Peaches, Nectarines,Plums & Apricots ��� Dwarfing, reduces tree vigor 35-50% ��� Tolerant to wet soils ��� Ripening time is advanced ��� Increased yield and fruit size efficiency reported KRYMSK��5 (cv. VSL2) USPP 15,723 Dwarfing Precocious Cherry Rootstock KRYMSK��6 (cv. LC-52) USPP 16,114 Dwarfing Precocious Cherry Rootstock KRYMSK��7 (cv. L2) USPP 16,353 Dwarfing Precocious Cherry Rootstock KRYMSK��86 (cv. AP1) USPP 16,272 Compatible with Peach, Nectarine, Plum, Apricot & Almond ��� Cold hardy ��� Precocious ��� Excellent production ��� Vigorous similar to seedling ��� Excellent root anchorage ��� Tolerates many soil conditions B10�� (cv Mich 96) USPPAF ��� Cold Hardy ��� Similar to M9 Pajam��2 for vigor and yield efficiency ��� Cold Hardy STONEWALL��� Hybrid Willow Windbreak ��� Tolerates many soil conditions ��� Fast growing ��� Good fast-growing Windbreak *Information given above is from trials all around the world. California commercial growers and nurseries are required to purchase Krymsk�� from Sierra Gold Nursery, Brights Nursery, Fowler Nursery, or Duarte Nursery. Se are���rvices to gro wers Info@treeconnect.com www.treeconnect.com GOOD FRUIT GROWER JANUARY 1, 2013 27