Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/233439
FORECAST 2013 2013 Business Rating Trends 100 90 2014 Production Volumes vs. 2013 Production Volumes Poor 80 60 Good 50 40 20 Excellent 10 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (forecast) Due to rounding, all numbers may not equal 100 percent of respondents. While the percentage of producers who rated 2013 business conditions to be excellent was well below the prior year, more than double the percentage of producers described business conditions as very good. The largest percentage — 37.1 percent — described 2013 business conditions as good. And, for the first time since 2006, fewer than 10 percent — 6.7 percent — described business conditions as poor. Looking ahead, most producers anticipate similar conditions in 2014, with the biggest movements being found in the bottom two categories and more than seven out of 10 forecasting business conditions that are excellent, very good, or good. Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies of operators who experienced excellent conditions in each region. The Northeast region tipped to the positive side, with no operators who recounted poor conditions. From a primary product basis, crushed stone & sand and gravel operators were the most enthusiastic, with 6.7 percent who described 2013 business conditions as excellent and two-thirds who categorized it as either excellent, very good, or good. Crushed stone-only operators followed with 4.2 percent of operators who depicted the year as excellent and 58.4 percent who opted for the positive business ratings. While no sand and gravel producers construed 2013 as excellent, two-thirds categorized it as very good, while remaining operators deemed business conditions as good. None of the operators of other materials (including recycled materials, cement, lime, and industrial minerals) described 2013 business conditions as excellent, but 57.6 percent selected very good or good business ratings. Looking at results from an operation's size, most of the ratings fell in the middle three ratings categories. In terms of positive results (excellent, very good, or good), operators with production of 3,000,001 to 5 million tons per year led the way with 85.8 percent describing positive business conditions. Their upbeat reports were followed by operators with production of more than 5 million tons (85.0 percent); operators with production of 500,001 to 1 million tons (61.1 percent); operators with 1,000,001 to 3 million tons (54.6 percent); and, finally, operators with less than Increased: 44.8% Stayed the same: 37.1% Very Good 30 0 Increased: 18.1 % Fair 70 Average increase: 13.3% Average decrease: 18.2% 2014 Production Expectations vs. 2013 Results Decrease: 3.8 % Increase: 42.9% Average increase: 12.2% Average decrease: 16.3% Stayed the same: 53.3% Source: Aggregates Manager 2014 Forecast Study 500,000 tons (52.6 percent). Operators in the 3,000,001 to 5 million tons per year category were also the most bullish on top-end results for 2013, with 28.6 percent who said it was an excellent year. No other size category reported excellent ratings in the double digits. Producer predictions As operators were asked to forecast business ratings for 2014, their predictions for the top two results — excellent and very good — were identical to the results reported for 2013 with 3.8 percent who expect an excellent year and 21.9 who anticipate a very good year. The biggest movement was seen in the percentage of operators who foresee a good year; that figure increased from 37.1 percent in 2013 to 47.6 percent in 2014. The jump in those expectations came as a result of fewer operators who predict a fair year (down from 30.5 percent in 2013 to 23.8 percent in 2014) or a poor year (down from 6.7 percent in 2013 to 2.9 percent in 2014). From a regional perspective, operators in the South are optimistic. An industry-leading 5.7 percent anticipate an excellent year. In addition, four of five operators in the South and NorthAGGREGATES MANAGER January 2014 Forecast_AGRM0114.indd 23 23 12/13/13 9:04 AM