Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/34944
logbook Fewer drivers available Trucking’s well-publicized driver shortage will grow next year and beyond, said an FTR Associates economist at an online meeting June 9. The problem is due to fewer new hires to replace retiring drivers, a smaller number of illegal aliens and regulations removing truckers, said Noel Perry, an FTR senior consultant. He noted that with the Baby Boom generation moving into retirement, the number of people available to trucking to replace those retiring will drop to about 500,000 a year from 1.5 million previously. He added that tougher immigration laws will keep many other potential drivers out of trucks compared with the last decade. In addition, many truckers who were laid off during the recession have either left the industry or found jobs with other carriers, he said. “It’s going to be fundamentally harder to recruit people,” Perry said. Take away about 300,000 drivers $1000 Sign On Bonus Available. We need owner-operators to join our fleet. Start a better future today. Call for details. Limited time offer. Fuel Surcharge on Every Load Our fuel surcharge program fluctuates with the national average price of diesel fuel, helping to offset your fuel costs. Save Money! Discounts available for fuel, tires, vehicles and more – all from being affiliated with FedEx Custom Critical. We also offer access to health care coverage. Call 1.866.280.5417 customcritical.fedex.com/us/owneroperator © 2011 FedEx who will be forced to the sideline because of poor safety records and the driver shortage will grow from about 150,000 positions this year to 300,000 next year and almost 350,000 in 2013, he estimated. Perry said that productivity gains, primarily by shippers and receivers making changes in their operations, could absorb a large piece of the impact of the driver shortage. Yet, he said, many shippers aren’t convinced of the problem’s size and haven’t acted. That could change quickly if shortages begin appearing. On rates, Perry forecast a 9-10 percent rise by the end of this year and double-digit increases next year and in 2013. Fleets of 500 trucks and more have the money and are buying replacement trucks, but smaller fleets have less cash and aren’t buying as many trucks, he said. Perry added that carriers that put off replacing trucks or adding trucks to meet rising business could be caught in a vise if they’re expanding in late 2013 or later when he believes the U.S. economy will be back in recession. — Max Kvidera 70 OVERDRIVE JULY 2011 TRUCKING OPPORTUNITIES Circle 222 on Reader Service Card or visit overdrive.hotims.com