Good Fruit Grower

June 1

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8 JUNE 2015 GOOD FRUIT GROWER www.goodfruit.com I magine what the apple part of your supermarket's produce section might look like at some future time. Sixty varieties of loose apples, all selling for $2 or $3 a pound, are lined up in boxes on two sides of an aisle—like the displays in the breakfast cereal aisle. They all have brand names; almost all are managed "club" varieties. Somewhere in the section are bags of familiar commodity apples, selling for much less than that. How likely is it that apples will get this retail treatment in the future? Not likely—in the opinion of most apple industry leaders who grow, pack, and sell apples. More likely, they say, there will be perhaps 10 or 12 new varieties of apples selling at premium prices and the usual commodity varieties selling for considerably less. The apple industry seems to be setting itself up for the first scenario. But if a washout occurs, four out of five of the new varieties and club apples introduced in the last decade may not survive into the future. A shakeout is coming "We're already starting to see some casualties, and the proliferation of new varieties appears to be slowing," says John Rice of Rice Fruit Company in Pennsylvania. Good Fruit Grower interviewed several influential and knowledgeable apple industry leaders who work with at least one club variety. We share some of their thoughts on the following pages. Expect a VARIETY shakeout How many is TOO MANY? New Varieties 1967-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-14 Washington's increasing apple production 125 million 40-POUND CARTONS 100 million 75 million 50 million 25 million 150 million (2014 figure is from December storage report. Season-end total could differ due to shrink.) 1967-2014 SOURCE: WASHINGTON GROWERS CLEARING HOUSE ASSOCIATION AND WASHINGTON STATE TREE FRUIT ASSOCIATION GRAPHIC BY JARED JOHNSON/GOOD FRUIT GROWER

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