STiR Tea & Coffee Industry International

Volume 4, Number 5

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8 STiR tea & coffee industry international / Issue 5, 2015 (October/November) Publisher/Founding Editor Glenn Anthony John gaj@octobermultimedia.com Managing Editor Dan Bolton editor@stir-tea-coffee.com Art Director Somjait Thitasomboon snt@octobermultimedia.com Global Tea Report Jane Pettigrew Global Coffee Report Jenny Neill Contributing Writers Anne-Marie Hardie Sherri Johns (North America) Alf Kramer (Europe) Sunalini Menon (India) Frank J. Miller Thomas Schmid Dan Shryock Kelly R. Stein (South America) Translations (Chinese) Helen Xu Fei Sales Director Emerson Leonard edl@octobermultimedia.com Sales Representative Jonathan W. Bell jwb@octobermultimedia.com Director, October Inter Co., Ltd. Boonthin Tubsongkroh brt@octobermultimedia.com STiR Tea & Coffee Industry International c/o October Inter Co. Ltd. Interchange 21 Bldg., 32nd Fl., Room 3225, 399 Sukhumvit Road, North Klong Toey, Wattana, Bangkok, 10110, Thailand Tel +66 2 660 3789 Fax +66 2 660 3881 www.stir-tea-coffee.com Published by: A Member of: L From the Editor © 2015 October Multimedia Co. Ltd., STiR Tea & Coffee Industry International is published bi-monthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December by October Multimedia Co. Ltd. Printing and distribution overseen by October Inter Co., Ltd., Interchange 21 Bldg. Fl 32, Rm 3225, 399 Sukhumvit Road, North Klong Toey, Wattana, Bangkok, 10110 THAILAND. Tel +66 2 660 3789. E-mail: info@octobermultimedia.com www.octobermultimedia.com. Visit: www.stir-tea-coffee.com for the latest news. Shortfall ike their seafaring ancestors, coffee traders can see over the horizon, a skill that combines trading experience with an understanding of market behavior and human insight. What coffee traders see is trouble ahead. The annual growth rate in global coffee consumption has averaged 2.3% since 2011, far exceeding production which continues to slump, down 3.5% from 2014/15 at an estimated 141.7 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO). Consumption is expected to reach 149.2 million bags this year with arabica comprising 83.6 million bags of the total. Since stockpiles are falling ICO predicts a spike in prices from a 7.5 million bag shortfall. This is a problem that is not going away. Demand is strong in many countries, particularly in traditional markets (Canada, European Union, Japan, Norway, Switzerland, and the US) but the biggest potential is in emerging markets (Algeria, Australia, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, Ukraine) and coffee exporting countries such as Brazil and Colombia. In this issue STiR Tea & Coffee International explores two ways to resolve the crisis. Empower women. In our feature Gender Equity, A Coffee Supply Chain Necessity (see pg. 28), Jenny Neill reviews three major papers that describe the impact women's empowerment has on coffee production. Approximately 70% to 80% of the world's coffee is produced by smallholders and half of that labor force is female. As Fairtrade International discovered, simply bringing all farmers under one roof to build their capacity, recognizing the fact that women are equal to men, deserve recognition, and can be credible leaders, yields positive gains. The expression of pride on the faces of Myanmar coffee growers Daw Phyu Pu and Daw Mya Hnin, winners of that country's first cupping competition, attests to the wisdom of this approach. See Myanmar's Arabica Awakening (see pg. 34). Develop coffee producing countries. Ethiopia is a fine example of what can be done to increase the world supply of arabica. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia emerged from the shambles of the military junta in 1991 to become the second most populous nation in Africa and the largest economy in East Africa. Ethiopia is now Africa's largest coffee producer at 6.6 million 60-kg bags, most of which is high quality arabica. Coffee growing supports more than 10 million households in 25 African countries. Over- all Africa's production rose by 4% in 2013/14 outpacing the global average. In the 1970s Africa produced 27.2% of the world's coffee but today Africa produces only 13.1%.The World Bank estimates Africa could generate $1 trillion a year in food production and processing, up from $300 billion today. Companies like Bühler Group are investing in Africa and should be commended for ef- forts like the newly constructed African Milling School in Nairobi. Employees from General Mills, Cargill, and Royal DSM have joined Bühler staff as volunteers in Partners in Food Solutions, a non-profit that is helping small food producers meet increasingly imposing food quality export requirements. Finally, China remains a sleeping giant with enormous potential. The Beijing Coffee As- sociation estimates production at 40,000-45,000 metric tons last year (750,000 bags). China has enormous capacity and a growing interest in coffee. China alone could one day produce 3 million bags of arabica, cutting the shortfall by half.

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