Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/590163
www.goodfruit.com GOOD FRUIT GROWER NOVEMBER 2015 35 unprecedented, Martin said. Much of the trouble has come down on growers in New York's Chautauqua County, where most of the Concord Belt is located. "Tourism and wineries are a smaller part of the indus- try in the county, but their growth has been critical for industry stability," he said. "All of this success has taken a century to build; unfortunately, short-term challenges put this economic force at risk." Where the market for juices had been sagging in general, economic problems got decidedly worse in the Concord Belt. In 2014, ConAgra Foods announced it had bought Carriage House and would close two of its juice and jelly product plants and move operations to Kentucky early this year. While overall this should not affect the market for bulk juice concentrate, it hurt some growers whose marketing contracts were canceled. About the same time, soft-drink maker Cott Corporation began to cut back on Concord purchases and on marketing contracts with growers. While the big force in the juice grape business is National Grape Cooperative, which owns Welch's, that co-op was in no position to take on what it considers to be "new acreage" from these growers. Its own growers were suffering from low prices and weak demand. "Before the market was entirely saturated, LERGP worked with growers to find additional markets for an estimated 3,000 tons," Martin said. "If these long-term trends continue, the impact will be much more significant. In addition to unmarketable crops, we will also see declining equity and land values for growers. Indirect impacts will also increase well beyond the $3.5 million dollars in lost grower sales, as these growers remain important employers and con- sumers in Chautauqua County." Martin noted that processor cancellations and price reductions are a direct result of a poorly performing juice market. "Prices of processed juice have plummeted by 60 to 75 percent in the last two years. At these prices pro- cessor margins will be razor thin, even as grape prices in 2015 remain extremely low for growers." Making adjustments Wine grape growers will have to decide whether they should switch to different varieties, since Cabernet Sauvignon and Riesling may be too sensitive to grow on most sites if cold winters persist. Where vines died completely, growers can decide to replant to other varieties. Where suckers survived, most growers will train up new canes. In New York, wineries can get juice from other states to continue making and selling wine, but laws prohibit buying out-of-state juice except in the event of a disaster. There are two kinds of licenses in New York, one costing more but allowing more latitude from that regulation. Probably the safest of 32 wineries in the region are those that make and sell wine based on native vari- eties like Concord—the traditional sweet wines, like Manischewitz that predate the conversion to vitis vinif- era and aim at a kosher clientele. There are other win- eries that use other native American grape species like Catawba and Niagara. Concord growers need to decide whether to stick through the low price period or change to something else. Martin noted that, since the advent of mechanical harvesting back in the 1970s, grower costs have been lower and, in most cases, investments have been paid for. There are about 300 grape harvesters in the region to do the harvest work. Pruning, at 27 to 32 cents a vine and 610 or so vines per acre, is the largest production cost, about $225 an acre. Martin figures most growers can endure Concord prices of $200 a ton—not getting much return on invest- ment but surviving if they reduce expenses. Prices were about $240 a ton last year, but they were continuing to fall. Prices of grape juice concentrate, once as high at $25 a gallon, had fallen to $6 to $9. In the long run, Martin doesn't see a decline in overall grape acreage, but expects less to be harvested in the short term. "The LERGP Extension team also provides assistance to growers looking at exiting the industry," he said. "For some, this becomes a least bad option, especially for those who have lost contracts and have no home for their grapes." • Washington State Tree Fruit Association's 111th Annual Meeting & NW Hort Expo D , Y, W Register Now! 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