Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/619545
AGGREGATES MANAGER / January 2016 15 tic. More than a quarter of those producing less than 500,000 tons per year expect either a fair or poor year, while 15.8 per- cent of those producing 500,001 to 1 million tons per year call for a fair year. No operator with annual production rates over a million tons predicted a poor year in 2016. As with 2015 results, sand and gravel producers paint the rosiest picture for 2016. Three quarters expect either an excel- lent year (25 percent) or a very good year (50 percent). Southern producers expect 2016 to be another good year; 22 percent predict an excellent year, while an additional 31.7 percent anticipate a very good year. Producers in the West are also positive; a combined 44.8 percent expect either an excellent year (6.9 percent) or a very good year (37.9 percent). Northeast producers were a little more cautious. None predicted an excellent year, but 36.4 percent expect a very good year. Just over a quarter of producers in the North Central region 2015 Business Rating Trends Reported business conditions in 2015 were very close to those og 2014. The number of producers reporting an excellent year is the highest since 2006, while the number of producers reporting a poor year was the lowest in the forecast's 12-year history. Looking ahead, producers continue to expect good business conditions. It should be noted that this survey was completed before a House and Senate conference committee produced a unified highway bill. 2015 Production Volumes vs. 2014 Production Volumes 2016 Production Expectations vs. 2015 Results Increased: 51.9% Increase: 47.2% Stayed the same: 39.8% Stay the same: 46.3% Decreased: 8.3 % Decrease: 6.5 % Source: Aggregates Manager 2015-2016 Forecast Study 2016 Production Expectations vs. 2015 Results Average increase: 22.2% Average decrease: 36.7% Average increase: 16.5% Average decrease: 30.8% Excellent Very Good Good Fair Poor 2004 10.4 32.4 41.7 11.6 3.9 2005 12.4 29.7 36.6 17.4 3.9 2006 12.9 32.2 35.9 15.1 3.9 2007 6.6 18.6 35.7 28.5 10.5 2008 2.3 9.8 30.3 35.8 21.8 2009 2.9 7.2 23.9 38.8 27.3 2010 1.6 11.2 22.4 38.4 26.4 2011 5.7 13.2 24.5 34.9 21.7 2012 6.9 10.9 32.7 37.6 11.9 2013 3.8 21.9 37.1 30.5 6.7 2014 8.9 26.6 40.3 20.2 4.0 2015 12.0 23.2 45.4 15.7 3.7 2016 (forecast) 11.1 31.4 41.7 13.9 1.9 Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies Due to rounding, all numbers may not equal 100 percent of respondents.