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VINEYARD but it would also reduce the diur- nal temperature change, leading to faster grape ripening and earlier harvest times, which could impact grape quality. Significant research was also conducted from 2003 to 2009, along with the modeling of climate- change scenarios for California for the 21st century, which reflect different ranges of temperature increases based on varying levels of carbon dioxide emissions. The research was funded by the Cali- fornia Energy Commission and con- ducted by the California Climate Change Center, an organization of scientists from Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and from UC Berkeley. Temperature increases were predicted to occur at a lower rate in the early part of the 21st century, from 1°F to 2.3°F, until 2034. Under high emissions scenarios, tempera- tures would increase at a greater rate in the latter half of the 21st pH century, with warming in the high range scenario of 8°F to 10.5°F by 2099. (Links to research, California climate-change information, and localized climate-change models and graphics under different sce- narios can be found at www.cal- adapt.org.) The TSVS model has the ability to delineate vineyard site suitabil- ity based on future climate-change scenarios. Terra Spase has mod- eled a sample suitability index for the Clear Lake AVA in Lake County with a temperature increase sce- nario of 3°C by 2050. This is based on a high emissions scenario from a research paper authored by Dr. Dan Cayan (and others), who is director of the California Climate Change Center based at Scripps in San Diego, which showed a tem- perature increase of 1°C to 3 °C (1.8°F to 5.4°F) by 2050. Locations on the TSVS map that currently show as shades of green in the 8-10 index range for high rain browning volatile acidity Brettanomyces pH Botrytis stuck fermentation mold S02 astringency oxidation rot Botrytis stuck fermentation mold S02 astringency oxidation rot YOU HAVE ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT. TAKE CORK OFF THE LIST! browning volatile acidity Brettanomyces pH Botrytis stuck fermentation S02 astringency oxidation THE TRUSTED SOURCE FOR CORK SINCE 1977. 444 Laguna Vista Rd. Santa Rosa, CA 95401 suitability, change to yellow colors in the 7-8 range based on this sce- nario. Skinner explained, "We see the vineyard suitability shifting one to two whole index ratings in some locations based on this tempera- ture increase. This affects a num- ber of factors such as water use, canopy management and harvest time. You need to think about this for making long-term plans, as you may want to plant varieties that can adapt to warmer temperatures." This scenario also indicates a potential shift in site suitability related to slope aspect, from the current southeast exposure, to instead favor aspects facing more toward the north and east. Ted Rieger, CSW, is a writer and photographer based in Sacramento, Calif., and has been a contributing editor for V&WM since 1990. Comments? Please e-mail us at feedback@vwm-online.com. 52 VINEYARD & WINERY MANAGEMENT JULY - AUG 2012 WWW.VWM-ONLINE.COM