Overdrive Magazine | Trucking Business News & Owner Operator Info
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14 | Overdrive | October 2016 Logbook Given the high truck build rates in 2014 and 2015, the market for 3- to 5-year-old tractors is set to be flood- ed, said Arrow Truck Sales President Steve Clough. Addressing the 2016 FTR Con- ference in Indianapolis, Indiana, last month, he said that supply will contin- ue to put downward pressure on used truck prices. "The supply of used trucks has already been determined based on what was retailed three, four and five years ago," Clough said. "That's a wall of inventory that's coming." He said as of July, prices for 5-year- old tractors (2011 model) were down about 15 percent year over year, 4-year-old tractors were down 16 percent, and 3-year-old tractors were down 18 percent. Those numbers are in line with recent monthly data from the National Automobile Dealers Association. "The amount of trucks I anticipate coming back as used trucks for the first time will continue to grow," Clough said. "It will probably peak in 2019 or 2020." This trend is the mirror image of what happened before. Used truck pricing had been accelerating as the low truck builds of the Great Recession and after (2008, 2009 and 2010) put a low cap on the used market's supply. The supply dropped until 2013, when the mar- ket stabilized some. In 2015, when freight and rates began fizzling, it also impacted used truck pricing. Since the middle of last year, the larger truck supply paired with low freight demand caused used truck prices to begin tumbling. "Spot rates affect used truck buyers more because they tend to work that market more," Clough said. – James Jaillet Used truck prices poised for decline Truck-related fatalities rise 4.4% in 2015 Truck-involved crashes resulting in fatalities increased by 4.4 percent in 2015 from 2014, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. NHTSA reported 4,067 truck-in- volved fatalities last year, the highest number since 2008. Of those, 667 (16.4 percent) were truck occupants, 10.1 percent were nonoccupants and 73.5 percent were occupants of other vehicles. NHTSA's report doesn't account for crash fault. In total, 35,092 people died from crashes in the United States last year, a 7.2 percent increase from 2014, the largest increase since 1966. NHTSA also recorded a significant increase in the number of injuries last year, rising from 2.34 million in 2014 to 2.44 million. A 3.5 percent increase in vehicle miles traveled is one contributing factor to the rise in fatalities, NHTSA said. However, the fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, 1.12 in 2015, increased 3.7 percent. Crashes resulting in fatalities caused by driver distraction increased 8.8 percent from 3,197 in 2014 to 3,477. Alcohol-impaired fatalities increased by 3.2 percent, speeding-related fatalities increased by 3 percent, and drowsy-driving fatalities decreased by 3.2 percent. "The data tell us that people die when they drive drunk, distracted or drowsy, or if they are speeding or unbuckled," said Mark Rosekind, NHTSA administrator. "While there have been enormous improvements in many of these areas, we need to find new solutions to end traffic fatalities." – Matt Cole Fatality Composition, 2006 and 2015 2006 2015 42% 36% 30% 28% 3% 3% 4% 4% 11% 14% 13% 18% Passenger car occupants Light-truck occupants Large-truck, bus, and other vehicle occupants Motorcyclists Pedestrians, bicyclists and other nonoccupants Source: FARS 2006 Final File, 2015 ARF Note: Sum of individual slices may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. The biggest changes in the percentages of victims of fatal truck-related accidents over the last decade have been a lower proportion of passenger car occupants and a higher proportion of pedestrians, bicyclists and others not inside a vehicle.