Fleet Management News & Business Info | Commercial Carrier Journal
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/782964
6 commercial carrier journal | february 2017 The end of a regulatory era? Trump administration offers hope for trucking, but trade policies remain concern BY JEFF CRISSEY A ccording to the early returns from the 2017 CCJ Economic Outlook survey (we'll publish the re- sults and analysis in next month's issue), fleet ex- ecutives are hopeful for more business-friendly conditions this year as President Trump enters the Oval Office after an eight-year run of unprecedented regulations across all federal departments and agencies. Just how prolific was regulatory activity under President Obama? Look no further than the Federal Register, which for the last 81 years has served as the journal of record for federal government activity, accounting daily for new agency propos- als, rules, public notices and presidential documents. While not scientific, the volume of Federal Register pages each year often is indicative of regulatory activity. The Obama administration holds the dubious distinc- tion of generating the most Federal Register page counts ever in seven of its eight years. According to data from the National Archives and Records Administration, the Federal Register had never eclipsed 80,000 total pages in a calendar year prior to 2009 when Obama took office. In 2010, the federal government published a then-record 81,405 pages. In 2016 – the eighth and final year of Obama's presidency – the Federal Register swelled to 97,110 pages. A December 2016 report by the George Washing- ton University Regulatory Studies Centers shows 465 "economically significant" regulations during Obama's two presidential terms through November 2016, with a projected 494 through the remaining month and a half of his presidency. Compare that to the last two two-term presidents, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, who tallied 358 and 361 such regulations, respectively. Fleet executives clamoring for signals of a more passive regulatory environment under the Trump administra- tion didn't have to wait long. Within his first few hours in office after the Jan. 20 inauguration ceremony, Trump ordered the heads of all federal ex- ecutive departments and agencies to freeze all new and pending regulatory activity until they can be reviewed by new officials appointed or designated by the new administration. Whether Trump follows the regulatory playbook of Presi- dent Reagan – whose administration tallied an eight-year high of only 57,736 pages in the Federal Register in 1981 – remains to be seen, but anything shy of the record regulation output of the last administration will be a welcome sigh of relief to many. Prospects for meaningful infrastructure spending, tax relief, healthcare reform and renewed support for U.S.- based manufacturing certainly have fleet executives bull- ish. But before we get too excited about trucking business conditions going forward, Trump's stance on foreign trade could negatively impact business conditions. "We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroy- ing our jobs," said Trump in his inaugural address. At that very moment, I was on a phone interview with Bob Costello, the American Trucking Associations' chief economist, discussing Trump's trade promises and their impact on trucking, including renegotiating the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement and nixing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (which he did just days later). "Trade and trucking are synonymous," said Costello. "We are a net importer, but we export a lot. If that starts to get hit, that is a detriment. Trade is a two-way street." UPFRONT JEFF CRISSEY is Editor of Commercial Carrier Journal. E-mail jcrissey@ccjmagazine.com. RANK YEAR PAGE COUNT POTUS 1. 2016 97,110 Obama 2. 2010 81,405 Obama 3. 2011 81,247 Obama 4. 2015 80,260 Obama 5. 2008 79,435 Bush 6. 2013 79,311 Obama 7. 2012 78,961 Obama 8. 2014 77,687 Obama 9. 2004 75,675 Bush 10. 2002 75,606 Bush 11. 2009 74,937 Obama 12. 2000 74,258 Clinton 13. 2005 73,870 Bush 14. 1980 73,258 Carter 15. 2007 72,090 Bush Top 15 Federal Register Page Counts by Year Source: Competitive Enterprise Institute analysis of data from the National Archives and Records Administration, Office of the Federal Register