CCJ

May 2017

Fleet Management News & Business Info | Commercial Carrier Journal

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commercial carrier journal | may 2017 23 JASON CANNON is Equipment Editor of Commercial Carrier Journal. E-mail jcannon@randallreilly.com or call (205) 248-1175. My prediction on full autonomy (Level 5) doesn't have the phrase "rapid transition" anywhere close to it – at least not to the point that it obliterates most of the workforce. A little math is in order to help make my point. rough the 1950s and into 1960, a heyday for U.S. automotive production, about 16.6 percent of working Americans were employed directly or indirectly by the industry. According to the Auto Alliance, automobile manufacturing currently provides 7.25 million American jobs – about 3.8 percent of private-sec- tor employment. e employment gap during those nearly 60 years is caused by robots. CGPS claims the number of workers in driving occupations from 2010 to 2014 was 4.1 million. Just more than 3.1 million (about 77 percent) are delivery and heavy-truck drivers. If autonomy actually slashes 4 million jobs as CGPS predicts, the entire transportation labor force would crash to about 120,000 jobs. Assuming each segment (buses, taxis and trucking) takes a proportionate share of the 97.5 percent loss of jobs, there could be fewer than 80,000 truck-driving jobs available in the United States. Using the hit taken by automotive manufacturing as a baseline – a process much easier to automate than 3 million 18-wheelers – I can't foresee autonomous trucks blowing up the labor force anytime soon. I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on the subject of economics or job losses, but my from-the-hip estimate is something in a range of 10 percent or less, and even that will be phased in over a series of many years as trucking graduates through autonomy Levels 2 through 5. An autonomous truck doesn't make the same amount of business sense to John Doe Trucking as it might for UPS or Walmart, and CGPS's estimated loss of more than 3 million truck-driving jobs indi- cates that almost the entire industry goes driverless. That won't happen rapidly. Maybe ever. Further, I think many of the jobs lost with larger carriers – which will embrace autonomous capabilities first and most – will remain in trucking, but in a different capacity, such as logistics and warehousing. The number of people actually displaced, I am hopeful, will be small. ere's no arguing that autonomy in trucking is what the techno-guys like to call a "disruptor." We're all going to get a new version of reality one day, but I think it will be more of a series of uncomfortable adjustments rather than a sweeping reinvention of the industry – at least for the foreseeable future. WANT MORE EQUIPMENT NEWS? Scan the barcode to sign up for the CCJ Equipment Weekly e-mail newsletter or go to www.goo.gl/Ph9JK. Eaton, Cummins form automated transmission partnership E aton and Cummins formed a joint venture to produce automated trans- missions for heavy- and medium-duty commercial trucks. Cummins and Eaton each will own 50 percent of Eaton Cummins Automated Transmission Technologies. Under the terms of the agreement, Cummins will consolidate joint venture results as part of its components business segment, and Ea- ton will receive $600 million in cash from the engine maker for its share in the deal. Tom Linebarger, Cummins chairman and chief executive of- ficer, said the partnership will deliver advanced au- tomated trans- missions and also develop an integrated powertrain and a service network. Eaton's current medium-duty au- tomated transmission, Procision, and next-generation heavy-duty automated transmissions will be part of the joint venture. In addition, the joint venture will market, sell and support Eaton's current generation of automated heavy-duty transmissions to OEM customers in North America. Eaton's Vehicle Group will retain its global manual transmission business, global clutch business, current-generation medium-duty and heavy-duty automated transmission businesses outside of North America, global aermarket business, light-duty transmission business, agricultural transmission business and global automotive business and associat- ed product lines. – Jason Cannon The Cummins-Eaton partner- ship will deliver advanced automated transmissions and also develop an inte- grated powertrain and a service network.

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