Overdrive Magazine | Trucking Business News & Owner Operator Info
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/893962
PULSE October 2017 | Overdrive | 5 part is seeing people's lives piled alongside the road. The uplifting part was the 'thank you' I got from local residents for helping. The very people who lost everything are smiling and helping their neighbors." Novak's delivery to a collection and distribution point in Texas, the Cowboy Church of Orange County, helped feed hungry live- stock and soothe people who, as he witnessed first- hand, had lost everything. "When you actually drive through it and see the destruction, you can't want to do anything but help them," Novak says. It all made him "proud to be an American," a sentiment echoed by owner-operator Ater when reflecting on his years working hurricane relief. Upon return to his home region, Novak noted that "through the magic of social media," yet another full load of hay and feed donated by Livingston County, Kentucky, and area farmers was secured within four hours, he says. "It's heading to Texas." As Overdrive's contribut- ing blogger Wendy Parker put it, "That's trucking, y'all. Deepest appreciation to those doing what they can do to help out this isn't just the way Americans are supposed to act. It's the way human beings are supposed to act." Point well taken. Here's a heartfelt thanks to all of you. Be safe out there. – Wendy Parker con- tributed to this report. Will electronic logging devices really drive up rates and driver pay? As Senior Editor Todd Dills' story in our August issue detailed, two widely held assumptions point to capacity shortages that will push rates higher soon after the Dec. 18 mandate takes effect: 1) fewer drivers, 2) many running fewer miles. Since then I've noticed far more to support that outcome than to discredit it, and it's hardly all ELD-related. One item was the sec- ond-quarter change in driver turnover. At large truckload fleets, it jumped 16 percentage points to 90 percent for the quarter. At small fleets, it was up 19 points to 85 percent. "We may be seeing the beginnings of a significant tightening of the driver market," says Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Trucking Associations, which issued the report. It seems that is borne out by an apparent increase in sign-on bonuses, based on the many press releases that come our way. Last month, for example, Roehl Transport offered a quali- fied $10,000 sign-on bonus. In 2016, some observers forecast a steady climb in rates, assuming a steady adoption of ELDs, which didn't happen. Virtually none occurred with the smallest fleets. During last month's FTR Transportation Conference, trucking economist Noel Perry said only about 40 percent of the industry has adopt- ed ELDs, reported News Editor James Jaillet. Perry predicted ELD adoption will cause an industry-wide productivity loss of 2.5 percent. That's on par with what some large fleets have reported in recent years. Small indepen- dents who've played loose with logging, though, might see a big hit as they adjust to a system that allows little wiggle room. How hard will the transition hit the holdouts? Also at the FTR meeting, Prime Inc. Vice President Steve Wutke pre- dicted a productivity loss of 4 to 7 percent. And speaking of procrastinators and capacity, no one really knows how many small fleets or drivers will fulfill promises to leave the industry by Dec. 18. FTR's Jonathan Starks notes the effect of these reductions in capacity and productivity, combined with double-digit in- creases in spot rates, "a slightly more robust economy" and a spike from hurricane recovery shipping. "That's a market which gives fleets a reason to be optimistic," he says. The same can be said for owner-operators prepared to run on through the transition. Don't expect a cataclysm of empty grocery shelves and sky- high rates, as has been hyped prior to other major industry changes. But these factors in- deed point to a capacity crunch – Perry predicts it happening between March and July – that clearly exceeds the market's typical ups and downs. ELDs and rates mheine@randallreilly.com By Max Heine Editorial director This generator was being dropped at a distribution point in Bryant, Texas, after Hurricane Harvey. Hurricane recovery is one of the factors, in addition to the ELD mandate, that is expected to tighten truck capacity and push up rates. FEMA