Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/917007
AGGREGATES MANAGER / January 2018 11 results mark the only time business rat- ings in this category fell below 1 percent throughout the forecast's existence. 2017 business ratings For more than nine out of 10 respon- dents, 2017 was a solid business year; 11.1 percent described it as an excellent year, 36.8 percent said it was very good, and another 42.7 percent said it was good. Results on the less favorable end of the spectrum were the lowest in the forecast's history with only 8.5 percent describing business conditions as fair and another 0.9 percent rating them as poor. In terms of operator size, large operators — those producing more than 5,000,000 tons per year — were the most likely to report excellent (10.5 percent) or very good (57.9 percent) results; a 9.2-percent increase in top ratings com- pared to 2016 results in the same ratings categories. Conversely, small operators — those producing less than 500,000 tons per year — were the most likely to report fair (13.5 percent) or poor (1.9 percent) business ratings. For perspective, this represents a more than 20-point decrease in the percentage of small producers who reported business results at the lower end of the spectrum from last year's survey. By commodity, sand and gravel pro- ducers were the most likely to report ex- cellent (10 percent) or very good (60 per- cent) results in 2017. They were followed by producers of crushed stone & sand and gravel with a combined 52.0 percent who reported excellent or very good results, then crushed stone producers with a total 43.7 percent who indicated excellent or very good results. From a regional perspective, operators in the Northeast were most likely to re- port strong business conditions, with 57.9 percent who described them as either excellent or very good. Operators in the South followed, with 51.2 percent who reported excellent or very good condi- tions, while 45.5 percent of operators in the North Central opted for the top two business condition ratings. In the West, 38.5 percent of operators described 2017 business conditions as excellent or very good. In terms of year-over-year results, respondents in the North Central and Northeast regions each reported top rat- ing increases of 14.1 percent. They were followed by respondents in the South, with 6.1 percent more who described business ratings as either excellent or very good than in 2016. The West was the only region to report a decline in the top two business ratings results, with a 0.3-percent decrease over 2016. The West was also the only region with respondents who recorded poor ratings results. 2018 forecast With a strong year behind them in 2017, operators continue to be optimistic when 2017 Business Rating Trends Business conditions, as considered in terms of sales and profitability, tracked very closely with last year's predictions. While the percentage of respondents categorizing 2017 as excel- lent fell slightly short of ex- pectations, it matched 2016 results. Significant growth was seen in the percentage of respondents describing 2017 as a very good year; that rating grew nearly 8 percent from 2016 results. Growth was also seen in the percentage of respondents describing 2017 as good — up more than 6 percent. The best indicator of in- dustry strength, however, may be the 11.5 percent year-over-year drop in re- spondents who described business conditions as fair. And, for the first time in 14 years of forecasts, less than 1 percent of respondents described business condi- tions as poor. Excellent Very Good Good Fair Poor 2004 10.40% 32.40% 41.70% 11.60% 3.90% 2005 12.40% 29.70% 36.60% 17.40% 3.90% 2006 12.90% 32.20% 35.90% 15.10% 3.90% 2007 6.60% 18.60% 35.70% 28.50% 10.50% 2008 2.30% 9.80% 30.30% 35.80% 21.80% 2009 2.90% 7.20% 23.90% 38.80% 27.30% 2010 1.60% 11.20% 22.40% 38.40% 26.40% 2011 5.70% 13.20% 24.50% 34.90% 21.70% 2012 6.90% 10.90% 32.70% 37.60% 11.90% 2013 3.80% 21.90% 37.10% 30.50% 6.70% 2014 8.90% 26.60% 40.30% 20.20% 4.00% 2015 12.00% 23.20% 45.40% 15.70% 3.70% 2016 11.10% 28.90% 36.30% 20.00% 3.70% 2017 11.10% 36.80% 42.70% 8.50% 0.90% 2018 (forecast) 12.80% 33.30% 42.70% 10.30% 0.90% Due to rounding, all numbers may not equal 100 percent of respondents. Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies