STiR coffee and tea magazine

20 STiR coffee and tea / Issue 5, 2020 (October / November) Tea Report: Dan Bolton CDC Implicates Restaurants The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) finds that adults with Covid-19 are about "twice as likely" to say they have dined at a restaurant during the 14 days before testing positive for the disease. The study, which was limited to those experiencing symptoms, examined 314 adults at 11 different health care facilities in 10 states. Half (154) tested positive, and 160 tested negative. Those who tested positive "were approximately twice as likely to have reported dining at a restaurant than were those with negative Sars-CoV-2 test results," according to the study. As a result, researchers recommend that "efforts to reduce possible exposures where mask use and social distancing are difficult to maintain, such as when eating and drinking, should be considered to protect customers, employees, and communities." "Adults with confirmed Covid-19 were approximately twice as likely as were control-participants to have reported dining at a restaurant in the 14 days before becoming ill," according to CDC. "In addition to dining at a restaurant, case-patients were more likely to report going to a bar/coffee shop," according to the report released Sept. 11. "Reports of exposures in restaurants have been linked to air circulation. Direction, ventilation, and intensity of airflow might affect virus transmission, even if social distancing measures and mask use are implemented according to current guidance. Masks cannot be effectively worn while eating and drinking, whereas shopping and numerous other indoor activities do not preclude mask use," according to the study. Researchers report that 71% of the Covid-19 positive patients said they work masks in public; 74% of those who tested negative said they always wore masks in public, "In this investigation, participants with and without Covid-19 reported generally similar community exposures, with the exception of going to locations with on-site eating and drinking options," writes CDC. Forty-two percent of those who tested positive reported having close contact with at least one person known to have Covid-19, most often family members. The study mentions five limitations, including a small sample size and the fact that participants were aware of their test results. "Of note, the question assessing dining at a restaurant did not distinguish between indoor and outdoor options," according to researchers, who say more research is warranted but caution that "eating and drinking on-site at locations might be important risk factors associ- ated with Covid-19 infection." Global Tea Prices Rise Tea prices are off their pandemic-in- duced high in May but remain higher than expected, given the huge surplus that would typically be consumed at restaurants and cafes. India, Sri Lanka, and Kenya all report increased prices at auction with some record-setting buys, defying the rules of global supply and demand. In producing countries with high domestic consumption such as India, shortfalls are boosting tea prices to record highs, but in Sri Lanka and Kenya, which produces tea mainly for export, demand is slack. India consumers purchase annually. Much of this tea is from Assam and West Bengal, where production is down 30% during January-July. The Tea Board of India reports record prices at tea auctions. In Kolkata and Guwahati (Assam), prices are up INRs100 ($1.33/kg). The price for CTC (crush, tear, curl), used mainly in making tea bags, recently averaged INRs313.58, up INRs129.99 per kilo. Prabhat Bezboruah, the chairman of Tea Board of India said a 12% price increase might compensate for the 10% crop loss due to lockdowns. Green leaf prices in Tamil Nadu also rose from INRs14-17 to INRs22 in August. August's price gains in Mombasa, Kenya, reported by the East African Tea Traders Association (EATTA) average Ksh208/kg ($1.93) compared to Ksh194 in July. Unlike India, where production has declined significantly, tea production is up 41% in Kenya due to good weather but is likely to plateau for the remainder of the year. Exports to primary trading partner Pakistan are up 14%, and the UK purchased 66% more Kenyan tea than usual due to shortages elsewhere. In Japan, the newspaper Chunichi Shimbun reported record low prices for Kagoshima Nibancha. The largest tea company in Japan, sales by global tea firm Ito En, decreased by 8.5% from February through April due to the coronavirus. "Tea auctions both in Shizuoka and Kagoshima declared that the second harvest tea price was lower compared to last year," according to the Global Japanese Tea Association. "In Shizuoka, it is estimated that the price per kilogram for summer tea went down by 10-15% from JPY609/kg in 2019. In Kagoshima, the decrease is even steeper by 26% to JPY452/kg this year." Over the past decade, tea prices have ranged from a low of $2.19/kg in January 2009 to a high of $3.29/kg in September 2017, but the long-run average price has stood at $2.85/kg, according to the Economist Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU). "Last year tea prices fell to $2.57/kg globally, due to ample supply, marking the weakest result since 2008. Although production prospects in most major tea producers are disappointing in 2020, weaker demand growth is likely to depress prices further," according to EIU. Prices fell to $2.33/kg in the first quarter of 2020, which marked the weakest quarterly result in 11 years. "Although they rebounded to $2.57/kg in the second quarter, they remain 3% below year-earlier levels. We expect tea prices to average $2.50/kg in 2020. Even assuming that underlying conditions improve in 2021, we expect only a moderate rise in average prices, to $2.81/kg," writes EIU.

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