STiR coffee and tea magazine

22 STiR coffee and tea / Issue 4, 2021 (August / September) Brazil's top arabica region of Cerrado among hardest hit Driving through the normally beautiful, lush, and green coffee lands from Southern Minas through Alta Mogiana to Cerrado, vast areas of completely burned black and dark brown coffee farms domi- nate the landscape for over 800 kilometers. From Varginha, Alfenas, Nova Resende, Muzambinho, Juruaia, Guaxupe, Franca, Pedregulho, Araxa and Patrocinio, the frost-stricken landscape just doesn't stop. "I lost everything; every single hectare of coffee planted was burned and I'll be lucky if I can recover perhaps 5-10% with some pruning," said Virginia Aguiar, her voice choking as she fights back tears at her Fazenda Semente in the Cerrado coffee region of Patrocinio. "I just don't know what to do right now, I am thinking I might move away, that this is it for me with coffee," she told STiR during a visit that quickly becomes emotional. Farms across the Cerrado region of Patrocinio were among the very worst hit by the frost and preliminary figures point to massive losses of up to 60% in individual farms here while the total figure for all of Cerrado is estimated at between 25-30%. But with Cerrado producing the world's highest average yields of 55-60 bags per hectare in a big-crop cycle, the negative and long-term im- pact on Brazilian production figure is much more significant. In any given year Brazil produces 35-40% of the entire coffee consumed around the world, and even though an overall loss of 10-15% might not sound like much, in the case of Brazil it makes up for as much as the entire coffee grown in Mexico and most of Central America combined. There is no other producing country or region in the world with even remotely close to the ability to make up for such a major shortfall in Brazil. Roasters may be forced to buy coffee on a day-by-day basis Speaking to STiR in exclusive comments traders, growers, agronomists, and exporters said the mag- nitude of damage leaves the market in a precarious situation, as roasters and buyers will push stocks to its limit in order to cover positions ahead of the next harvest, and if even the slightest additional damage — such as further frosts in Brazil, issues with the new flowering season that start in Oc- tober, or any other weather problems in produc- ing areas elsewhere in the world — can potentially push the deficit into a situation where roasters will have to buy on a day-by-day basis based on fresh supply reaching the market. "The coffee farmer is brave," said coffee grow- er Joao Antonio Ribeiro. "We will start over and wait until the trees start producing coffee again." Most of the Brazilian farmers will agree with this sentiment, but for the global market there is no such luxury of waiting as the world's biggest pro- ducer and exporter just started running out of sup- ply a lot faster than expected. Maja Wallengren has been writing about coffee for more than 25 years from over 60 coffee producing countries across Southeast Asia, Africa, the Caribbean, and Latin America. She can be reached at: coffee@coffeetea.media STiR reporter Maja Wallengren meeting with coffee growers Zaqueu de Oliveira and Fernando Barbosa in the Southern Minas region of Nova Resende. STiR contributing editor Maja Wallengren was the first reporter on the ground to cover the massive frost damage directly from the coffee regions. "I lost everything; every single hectare of coffee planted was burned…"

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