STiR coffee and tea magazine

10 STiR coffee and tea | 2024 Issue 1 (February / March) Balance Production Consumption Production of Coffee - Regions, Percent Shares Africa South America Asia & Oceania Caribbean Central America & Mexico Inner Ring - 2021/22 Outer Ring - 2022/23 29.6% 31.1% 11.5% 10.6% 46.2% 48.3% 11.2% 11.4% Global Coffee: Anticipating an Exceptional 2024 Coffee in the new year will avoid several 2022/23 market anomalies, including persistent inflation and policies that led to big swings in available stocks. World coffee production stagnated last year, increasing by only 0.1% to 168.2 million (60 kilograms) bags. "Looking ahead, the output for the coffee year 2023/24 is expected to increase by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the Arabicas' output rising to 102.2 million bags and the robustas' increasing to 75.8 million bags," according to the International Coffee Organization. World coffee consumption is forecast to grow by 2.2% to 177 million bags, with non-producing countries making the biggest contribution to the overall increase. ICO describes "tremendous changes at the regional level, with the coffee world neatly split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world." Coffee production in Africa declined 7.2% in 2022/23 to 17.9 million bags. Asia and Oceania experienced a 4.7% decline to 49.84 million bags. The Americas, in contrast, saw a combined output of 100 million bags. South American producers, led by an 8.4% increase in Brazil, reported a 4.8% overall increase in volume. South America's share of global production increased to 48.3% last year from 46.2% in 2021/22. The Caribbean and Central American countries, including Mexico, grew to 11.4% of total production. The ratio of arabica increased by 1.3% to 55.9% of global coffee. Arabica output grew 1.8% to 94 million bags last year, while the robusta harvest declined 2% to 74.2 million bags. A bright year ahead The USDA's bi-annual Coffee Report forecasts a 171.4 million bag harvest, a 6.9 million bag increase compared to the previous market year. According to USDA, higher output in Brazil, Colombia, and Ethiopia is expected to offset reduced production in Indonesia. Global coffee bean exports are expected to increase by 8.4 million bags to 119.9 million, primarily on strong shipments from Brazil. "The global consumption forecast is a record 169.5 million bags, ending inventories that are expected to continue to tighten to a 12-year low of 26.5 million bags. "Coffee year 2023/24 is anticipated to be an exceptional off-biennial year, feeling more like a good on-biennial follow- ing an average on-biennial year. Adverse weather conditions, first noted in 2022 and continuing into 2023, will hurt the outlook for coffee year 2023/24. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon will dampen the outlook in Asia, especially for origins like Indonesia. Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to benefit from the drier/hotter weather as irrigation mitigates the reduced precipitation," according to USDA. European Union rebound expected According to ICO, "Consumer confidence in coffee consump- tion is back up, as a return to the office becomes common- place." The December ICO Coffee Outlook cited the advent of new monthly subscription-based pricing models, offering the Global Coffee Production Inner Ring - 2021/22 Outer Ring - 2022/23 International Coffee Organization | December 2023 Coffee Report & Outlook. Coffee Report

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