Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/1541387
18 tobaccoasia Issue 6, 2025 November / December By Thomas Schmid When it comes to predicting the future of tobacco, industry insiders often outperform meteorologists. Their forecasts—grounded in market data, consumer behavior, and regu- latory rumblings—offer a compelling glimpse into what 2026 may throw at us. From fusion flavors to biodegradable filters, and from big puff vapes to the meteoric rise of nicotine pouches, the year ahead promises transfor- mation and innovation… but also no shortage of challenges. Crystal Ball: Industry Trends in 2026 Tobacco Asia picked the brains of a random selection of high-level executives to forecast what lies ahead for the tobacco sector. Bianca Hinrichsen, managing director, Hertz & Selck. All photos: Thomas Schmid Fusion forward: the flavor renaissance Bianca Hinrichsen, managing director of Hertz & Selck, sees 2026 as the year fusion flavors take center stage across tobacco-adjacent categories. "No more single flavors like banana and pineapple," she explains, "but always in a mix—Black Forest Gateau, Tropical Fruit Basket… and perhaps with a bit of cream, roasted notes, or tobacco undertones." While this change reflects consumers' desire for complexity, it runs counter to the expected tightening of regulations, particularly in Europe. Hin- richsen notes that the anticipated rollout of TPD3 will heavily influence flavor development, particularly in vaping, heated tobacco, and modern oral prod- ucts. "We're all very excited to see what TPD3 will bring," she says, acknowledging the regulatory un- certainty. Asia remains a stronghold for bold flavoring in 2026, especially menthol. "As soon as you get to Asia, you can't really have enough menthol," Hin- richsen observes. Yet even there, fusion flavors are gaining ground, tailored to regional preferences. The rise of white nicotine pouches marks a broader shift from tobacco to nicotine-centric products. Hinrichsen sees this as an opportu- nity to apply familiar flavor profiles from sweets, cocktails, and savory snacks to new formats. "It's okay to be a little crazy," she laughs, referencing the occasional outlandish request. "We don't have Leberkäse [Bavarian meat loaf] in our range right now, but it's okay to go in that direction if there is demand for it." Ultimately, Hinrichsen predicts moderate organic growth across the flavor sector, driven by project-based innovation and global expansion. "We define the goal and then look at how we can achieve it," she says. "And sometimes completely new, very exciting things emerge." Small format, big opportunity: cigars in a changing economy David Lee, c.m.o. of PT. Besuki Raya Cigars (BRC), believes 2026 will be shaped by economic realities and shifting demographics. "Demand for low- to medium-priced cigars will be higher than for premium cigars," he predicts. "Cuban premi- um cigars have a legendary reputation, but their pricing nowadays is relatively too expensive for many people to afford." Lee sees younger consumers driving growth in lighter, smaller formats. "They don't want to start out with the heavyweights," he explains. "Their favorite formats are smaller sized ones with soft fillers, because they're easy to smoke." BRC's own El Gaucho Chiquitos line exemplifies this trend. "We really underestimated the initial market response," Lee admits. "We had run out of stock after only three months after we released the line in 2022." The Chiquitos—hand-rolled, yet at an affordable price point—offer a compelling alter- native to pricier Cuban and Dominican options.