Tobacco Asia

20 tobaccoasia Issue 6, 2025 November / December The surge already began in 2023, driven by the EU's Sin- gle-Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) and Extended Producer Re- sponsibility (EPR) regulations. "We shared over 300 samples of filters made out of sustainable materials in 2023," Azinheira re- calls. But, interest waned in 2024 and 2025 as companies shifted to internal r&d. "Most of them now have internal solutions and they are ready," he says. But Azinheira predicts a resurgence in 2026, led by multinational launches. "There are a few companies that we know typically are followers; and they will follow [the multinationals] suit," he adds. He also sees cellulose acetate manufacturers reinvent- ing themselves. "They are not addressing the plastic aspect but rather the carbon footprint and recyclability," he explains. Despite that progress, Azinheira doesn't foresee the demise of acetate filters just yet. "No, not next year. Absolutely not," he says. Instead, he anticipates coexistence between non-wovens and sustainable materials. Beyond filters, Azinheira notes ris- ing interest in reduced-risk products, particularly heat sticks. "We're receiving inquiries from independents… interested to launch products, not necessarily on the device part but rather on the consumable part," he reveals. Oral tobacco products is another sector to watch. "All the multinationals are looking into it," Azinheira says. "I'm not sure if it's all going to happen in 2026, but definitely in the next couple of years." Pouch power: the rise of a US$100 billion category Waqas Khan, global c.e.o. of Clew, is unequivocal about the future of nicotine pouches. "The category is exploding," he de- clares. "Certain markets are even growing at a 5 or 6 x multi- plier." Khan forecasts a market cap exceeding US$100 billion within 5-6 years. "It already was a US$250 million market glob- ally when pouches first emerged about a decade ago," he says. "Right now, it's trending at close to US$8 billion." Waqas Khan, global c.e.o., Clew. Hugo Azinheira, executive director global research & innovation, Filtrona. Originally a Nordic phenomenon, pouches now domi- nate in the US, which accounts for 55% of global consumption. "Vaping is transitioning to pouches," Khan explains. And his own brand, Clew, is expanding rapidly, too, with hubs in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. "We are already present in duty free shops at Dubai, Beirut, and Bangkok airports, and we should be in at least 10 others across the US and even Japan by the end of 2025," he notes. Regulatory frameworks are evolving as well. "Not more than 5% of the markets across the world have any regulations on pouches," Khan says. But he expects that to change. "My forecast for 2026 is that a majority of the markets around the globe will either roll out regulations or at least begin working them out in earnest." Clew's experience navigating diverse regu- latory environments—from natural health product classification in Canada to halal certification in Malaysia—illustrates the com- plexity. "In Thailand, we are registering Clew as a pharmaceuti- cal product," Khan adds. Education remains a challenge. "When I introduced pouches [in Egypt], people thought they were for eating," he laughs. "We are teaching them now how to use a pouch." And innovation will be key. "Right now everybody's talking about nicotine pouches," Khan says. "But you will see a lot more in- novation in the pouch format in 2026 and beyond." 2026, a year of transformation From fusion flavors to biodegradable filters, and from big puff vapes to the global rise of nicotine pouches, 2026 promises to be a year of transformation; sometimes foreseeable, sometimes emerging totally out of the blue. As regulations tighten and consumer preferences evolve, the tobacco industry is poised to adapt, innovate, and—perhaps most importantly—educate. If our interviewees' predictions hold true, the sector may look very different by this time next year.

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