STiR coffee and tea magazine

8 STiR coffee and tea | 2025 Quarter 4 Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 Coffee Prices Surge Daily latte runs, bags of specialty beans, and even coffee subscriptions suddenly seem less feasible, as coffee becomes increasingly expensive across the board. This trend is particularly noticeable in the United States, where retail coffee prices have skyrock- eted over the past year. In September, the average price of a pound of coffee at US grocery stores reached $9.14, more than 40% higher than the same month last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average price for all coffee types, including instant, is up 19% year-on-year, far above the general food and beverage inflation rate of 3%. While not as extreme, according to data from the restaurant management platform Toast, the average price of a cup of coffee in US restaurants rose by 2.6% in September compared to the same month last year. Cold brew was up 4.2% over the same period. There are several reasons for this rise, including record-high green prices driven by lower supply, primarily due to drought-impacted production in Brazil and Vietnam. But another big reason was the tariffs. Beginning in April, US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs that affected nearly all coffee-producing countries. Brazil, which supplies the majority of US coffee, was hit with 50% tariffs, while other major suppliers such as Colombia, Vietnam, and Indonesia were also impacted. Tariffs are a tax paid by the importing company at the point of entry, and are usually passed on to the consumer. That, industry experts say, is what has happened with coffee. "Consumers are footing the bill" for the price rises, Swing's Coffee Roasters owner Mark Warmuth told CNN. Between US tariffs and record spikes on the futures market, coffee prices worldwide are through the roof. Directly impacted by US tariffs, the C price hit record highs twice in 2025. Importers, coffee shops, and roasters around the country have reported raising prices over the past few months, with the majority citing the tariffs as the main reason. Chris Kornman, director of education at the importer Royal Coffee, called the tariffs "an unprecedented crisis," telling Business Insider that absorbing the extra fees "erases our entire profit margin." In November 2025, President Trump announced that coffee would be among certain items exempt from tariffs. Shortly after the announcement, the US reached trade agreements with several Latin American countries and eventually issued an executive order officially removing all reciprocal tariffs on coffee. National Coffee Association President and CEO, William 'Bill' Murray, stated that he believes this "will ease cost-of-living pressures for the two-thirds of American adults who rely on coffee each day, as well as secure coffee supplies for the US companies who turn every $1 in coffee imports into $43 of US economic value." It's not just the US — around the world, retail coffee prices are increasing. Instant coffee prices in the United Kingdom jumped 40% in the year to March 2025, and Brazilian coffee roasters have been raising prices over the past few months. In Japan, Starbucks and some convenience stores raised prices in February, while the average price of a cup of coffee in Australia has risen 37.5% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, in Germany, roasted coffee prices are up 43% compared to last year. These price rises are less immediately connected to Trump's tariffs. However, the tariffs have directly impacted the coffee C price, which has been climbing for more than a year. Since early 2024, the coffee futures market has risen more than 100%, hitting record highs twice this year already. Other reasons include climate pressures, low stockpiles, and the European Union's backtracking on plans to delay implementation of its deforesta- tion legislation. It's a perfect storm for coffee prices, and the uncertainty around trade signals more turbulence ahead for consumers and the industry alike. By Fionn Pooler Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Coffee (US$/Lbs) 395.74 -4.26 (-1.07%) 395.74 Arabica Coffee Futures: Jan-Nov 2025 Coffee Report

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