STiR coffee and tea magazine

STiR coffee and tea 49 What Is Driving the New Wave of Global Interest The current rise of East African coffees is not the result of a sudden quality leap — the quality was always there. The shift is structural, market-driven, and increasingly urgent. Hage-Chahine identifies the key forces: "The market is shifting toward differentiation, traceability, and more distinctive flavor profiles — areas where these origins naturally stand out — and climate and cost pressures in Latin America are pushing buyers to diversify origin risk and look beyond traditional supply bases." Ethiopia's export performance backs this up. The country exported nearly 469,000 metric tons of coffee in 2024/25, generating a record $2.65 billion — a near-doubling in revenue year on year (TradeImeX). Uganda, meanwhile, has undergone what Hage-Chahine describes as a structural transformation: a large-scale planting campaign by the Uganda Coffee Development Authority between 2013 and 2015 resulted in a wave of new trees reaching peak produc- tion in the early 2020s. Combined with elevated global prices, this produced "two consecutive waves of incentives, resulting in production rising to around 8 million to 9 million bags, close to a threefold increase within a decade," added Hage-Chahine. Mathai, however, cautions against reading the regional rise as uniform. In Kenya, she notes, "Overall production of arabica has declined, reflecting structural constraints in the system, particularly delayed payments and weak links between quality and reward." She observes that the increased visibility in Kenya is "concentrated in a smaller pool of high-quality coffee rather than reflecting broad sector growth." The Infrastructure Behind the Improvement: What's Actually Working Beyond demand trends, the real story is on the ground. Across Ethiopia, Ke- nya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania, targeted investments in postharvest in- frastructure, agronomy, and market access are producing measurable results. Barigye credits integrated support models as transformative: "Access to finance through struc- tures like Village Savings and Loan Associations is allowing farmers to avoid distress-selling, invest in their farms, and sell higher-quality coffee at bet- ter prices." Mountain Harvest's model — working with over 3,000 smallholders across Mt. Elgon, Rwenzori, and Kigezi — has enabled farmers to earn up to 30% above local farmgate prices. Hage-Chahine points to a combination of forces: "Growing investment in processing infra- structure and quality control, sustainability pro- grams focused on regenerative agriculture, farmer training, and traceability are all becoming more widespread. The increasing use of digital tools is also improving transparency and efficiency across the supply chain." Yet Mathai's research surfaces a counterintui- tive finding: "Over 90% of farmers surveyed in our study reported receiving training in the past five years and showed high adoption of recom- mended practices, yet this had no measurable effect on value capture." She argues that: "The binding constraint is not knowledge but incentive design. Income is determined far more by incen- tives, liquidity, and route to market than by techni- cal knowledge alone." EUDR and the Uneven Race Toward Compliance The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is now a defining test for East African exporters. Prepara- tion is advancing, but unevenly. Ethiopia continues to dominate East African coffee production, and Uganda's recent rise is impressive, while Kenya's production has remained stagnant over the last few decades. Chart credit: Scaled Impact Kenneth Barigye, managing director of Mountain Harvest, seeks to help smallholder coffee farmers in Uganda realize their full potential through agronomy training, access to year-round financing, and a reliable market. Photo credit: Mountain Harvest Regional Distribution of Green Coffee Production in East Africa, 2003/23 (in MT) 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CAGR CAGR (20 year) (10 year) -1.4% -0.1% 7.7% 3.6% 5.8% 7.7% 0.9% -1.2% -0.7% 2% Kenya Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Restof EA Note: Rest of Eastern Africa includes Burundi, Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rwanda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Source: FAO stat, Scaled Impact Total volume of green coffee produced ('000 MT) I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

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