Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/1545684
Tobacco Asia 19 The limitations are significant. Data visibility is often poor, definitions vary across markets, and the rapid evo- lution of products and supply routes further complicates analysis. Not beat- ing around the bush, Henriquez readily acknowledged that findings are typically "directional insights and patterns" rather than precise figures, with transparency around assumptions being essential. Barcelona-based Tamarind Intel- ligence has adopted a similarly multifac- eted approach, drawing on consumer sur- veys, product audits, trade flow analysis, and web usage data. Barnaby Page high- lighted an additional challenge: the lack of comprehensive retail data even within the legal market. "While certain geogra- phies, types of retail, or brands may be very well-covered, invariably others are not," he noted, making it difficult to con- struct a complete picture. Global hotspots: where illicit vaping dominates Despite these challenges, clear patterns emerge. Euromonitor International iden- tifies several markets with extraordinarily high levels of illicit vaping prevalence. Some of these countries may be quite surprising to the uninitiated. According to Euromonitor research, Israel tops the list, with an estimated 98.51% of e-vapor retail volume classified as illicit. Ukraine follows closely at 96.59%, with the Unit- ed Arab Emirates, China, and Panama also exceeding 94%. (see table) The drivers behind these staggering figures vary but share common themes. Henriquez said that, in Israel, a combina- tion of stringent regulatory constraints, including low nicotine caps, extensive advertising restrictions, and high taxation are the main culprits. These measures, while intended to control consumption, have instead "encouraged demand for non-compliant higher-strength and fla- vored products," often supplied through informal channels at lower prices. Ukraine, in contrast, presents a dif- ferent but equally instructive case. Here, a ban on flavored products, coupled with weak enforcement, has effectively dis- placed demand into unregulated supply chains. During his interview, Henriquez painted a market where illicit activity is "overwhelmingly driven by policy bans… combined with weak enforcement," re- sulting in widespread smuggling and do- mestic counterfeit production. These two examples alone illustrate a recurring dynamic: when regulation signifi- cantly constrains legal supply without effectively suppressing demand, illicit markets tend to flourish. The US and the scale of illicit consumption While Euromonitor's rankings highlight smaller markets with high percentages, Tama- rind Intelligence draws attention to the US as the largest illicit vaping market in abso- lute terms. Barnaby Page noted that "by our definition of illicit, the majority of US vape sales" fall into this category, making it "by far the biggest illicit market in the world." This assessment reflects the complexity of the US regulatory environment, where product authorization processes have created significant barriers to legal market entry. As a result, a large number of products available to consumers do not fully comply with regulatory requirements, even if they are widely sold through mainstream retail channels.