Tobacco Asia

72 tobaccoasia Issue 4, 2026 July / August By Allen Liao The ceiling Chinese-style cigarettes face today is not a constraint of production capacity, nor a flaw in distribution channels, but rather a shift in logic. In the past, the industry followed a product-centric growth path: perfect the quality, set the right price, fill the channels, and wait for consumers to come. This logic worked because consumer de- mand was stable, social rituals were fixed, and the "category identity" of cigarettes was clear. Today, that foundation is crumbling—not be- cause the products have deteriorated, but because the way consumers organize their lives has changed. They no longer make purchasing decisions by "category" but by "scenario." A can of beer sitting on a shelf belongs to the "beer cat- egory," but when clinked with colleagues after a late-night shift, it be- comes "a moment of relaxation." When packed into a gift box ahead of the Spring Festival, it becomes "a thoughtful gesture." Category is the language of producers; scenario is the language of consumers. For Chinese-style cigarettes, the core problem lies precisely here: consumers have not disappeared—they simply no longer exist in the way brands are accustomed to recognizing them. Banquets, Chinese Cigarettes Shift to Scenario Marketing gatherings, gift-giving, celebratory dinners—the fixed scenarios on which cigarettes once depend- ed are dissolving. The central contradiction in the traditional growth model is no longer "insufficient product supply," but rather "the erosion of sce- nario demand." From "category ranking" to "scenario vacuum" For decades, the growth of Chinese-style ciga- rettes relied heavily on three core scenarios: busi- ness banquets, festive gift-giving, and wedding or funeral occasions. This formed a passive circula- tion path of "production—distribution—natural sales," essentially using stable social rituals to com- plete product distribution. However, the arrival of the era of stock competition means these scenarios are collectively shrinking. The normalization of official consump- tion, rising health awareness, and shifts in interper- sonal interaction are combining to transform the act of "offering a cigarette" from a matter-of-course courtesy into a behavior that increasingly requires justification. A deeper change lies in the shifting pri- orities of consumers: they no longer spend simply for "face" or status, but seek emotional value and social resonance at specific moments. At this stage, relying solely on taste upgrades, price competition, or channel coverage can no longer open new space. The core contradiction is stark: brands are still competing within the world of categories, while consumers are already choos- ing within the world of scenarios. Entering the consumer's world The logic of traditional marketing is "occupy the category"—to fight for the top position within an established category and become a label in the consumer's mind. The implicit assumption is that consumers organize their buying decisions around categories. But this assumption is breaking down. To- day's consumer is not a single "type," but a col- lection of "multiple slices" that shift across time, place, and mood. The same person might belong to the "power brunch" crowd in the morning, the "afternoon tea" crowd in the afternoon, and the "stress-relief supper" crowd late at night. They don't think, "Which brand of cigarettes should I buy?" but rather, "What do I need right now?" This is the essence of scenario: a scenario is not a channel, but a "living crowd"—a "slice of time" in the life of a specific group of people. If "occupying a category" means ranking in the producer's world, then "occupying a scenario" means appearing in the consumer's world. The core of scenario strategy is no longer asking "to whom can I sell my product?" but answering "at what specific moment can my product solve what problem for the user?" Chinese cigarette brands are shifting from a product-focused approach to one centered on consumer needs, exploring new use occasions beyond traditional social rituals.

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