Tobacco Asia

60 tobaccoasia Issue 6, 2026 November / December The result was a significant change in the supply outlook. Final production is estimated at 154.9 million kilograms, around 9% below buyer demand. Earlier concerns about oversupply there- fore gave way to an anticipated supply shortfall. Yet growers did not necessarily benefit from the change in market balance. Grower satisfaction received a rating of 2, or dissatisfied, with many farmers believing buyers purchased their tobacco at lower prices because of the earlier expectation of oversupply. The outlook for the next season is also poor. A strengthening El Niño is expected to bring be- low-average rainfall and prolonged dry spells, par- ticularly in southern Malawi, although the eventual impact remains uncertain. Zimbabwe faces a similar combination of pro- duction and marketing pressure. Excessive rainfall in November and December affected both early- and late-planted crops. Late-planted tobacco struggled to establish strong root systems, while early crops suf- fered yield losses, disease pressure, and poorer leaf quality. Rainfall declined from mid-February, con- tributing to increased nematode pressure. Growers consequently faced significantly lower yields and quality, while the marketing sea- son also proved difficult. The report describes grower morale as low. With El Niño expected to affect the next crop, growers anticipate another challenging season and expect production vol- umes to decline. There is, however, one potential upside. Zimbabwean growers hope that tighter supply could support stronger prices. Zambia presents a somewhat different pic- ture. Higher rainfall supported production in some areas, but excessive rainfall produced a greater proportion of thin leaves and lower leaf quality. Significant weight loss also affected the 2026 crop. The experience has highlighted the growing importance of climate-smart production and bet- ter weather-risk management. Grower satisfaction remains neutral: prices and market access provided some stability, but erratic rainfall affected yields, quality, and crop weight. Smallholders remain particularly exposed because they depend heavily on rain-fed production. The outlook also remains neutral, with drought, delayed rainfall, and below- normal precipitation representing potential risks. Across the three countries, the message is clear. Climate does not affect every grower in the same way, but increasingly unpredictable weather can un- dermine both production volumes and leaf quality, making planning and investment more difficult. When the market disappears Colombia demonstrates another risk that growers cannot control: the loss of a buyer. The country's 2026 crop suffered from an exceptionally intense summer associated with El Niño. The ITGA re- port says adverse climatic conditions affected pro- duction, productivity, and quality by 50%. At the same time, Suntrust Group SAS is ceasing tobacco purchases in Colombia from 2026. The withdrawal is expected to reduce national to- bacco production by 30% and directly affect ap- proximately 470 burley and virginia growers. The situation becomes more difficult be- cause BAT and Philip Morris had already with- drawn from the market. Many of the affected growers invested in drying and curing infrastruc- ture, including through credit, after Suntrust en- tered the market in 2023. They now face outstand- ing financial commitments without a contracted market for their tobacco. The report gives Colombian grower satisfac- tion the lowest rating of 1, or very dissatisfied. Yet the outlook for the next season receives a rating of 4, or good. That seemingly contradic- tory assessment reflects the importance of finding alternative buyers and new market opportunities. The report makes clear that the future of the af- fected burley and virginia growers depends heav- ily on securing those opportunities. For ITGA, cases such as Colombia underline the importance of market access alongside production. A grower can invest in land, labor, and curing infrastructure, produce a crop and still face severe uncertainty if the purchasing structure changes. ITGA's 2026 AGM brought together grower representatives from across the globe to share country-level perspectives on crop conditions, market pressures, and the changing realities of tobacco farming. Credit: ITGA. "Production decisions increasingly require careful consideration of curing capacity, labor availability, production costs, weather, and market developments."

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