Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/1547352
Tobacco Asia 23 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Daily vaping Daily smoking 15 10 5 0 New Zealand's measured path New Zealand also leaned on price, but more gently. Its excise program ran at 10% a year over a decade from 2012, tak- ing a pack of Marlboro 20s from NZ$14 to NZ$38. But where Australia tightened, New Zealand opened a legal door: in 2018-2019 it created a regulatory frame- work for vaping and explicitly recog- nized it as harm reduction. Daily vaping rose from roughly 1% of adults to about 11.7%, overtaking conventional smok- ing around 2022. During his GTNF pre- sentation, Hooker credited a pragmatic dialogue with officials, noting that "they love it when somebody just walks in the room with some common sense." Public health bodies, he said, are "much more so" on board with harm re- duction than politicians. Even the coun- try's one dramatic overreach, the 2022 amendment law, which would have cut tobacco retailers from 6,000 to 600 and mandated very low nicotine cigarettes, was repealed after the 2023 change of government. In its place came a 2024 vaping regime covering specialist and general retailers, flavor limits, a single-use ban and a nicotine cap. Why smugglers came for Australia first Criminals follow margins and markets, and Australia offered both aplenty. Hooker put it bluntly: "[criminals] want to know the size of the prize," and "[Australia's] 28-million market versus [New Zealand's] 5-million market" is no contest. Add a price gap of roughly A$35 per pack between taxed and untaxed cigarettes, estimated by one Aus- tralian commentator, and the incentive is obvious. Foukkare agreed that "the financial incentive is there" and will persist until addressed. Policy compounded it. Australia's controversial pharmacy-only vaping model left most consumers with no convenient legal supplier. ABS data cited by AACS put illicit vapes and pouches in the country at 97.5%. By contrast, New Zealand's regulated vape shops kept the legal channel open, and its slower excise ramp narrowed the gap smugglers could exploit. It was somewhere between December 2021 and December 2022 when vaping consump- tion drew equal with combustibles, eventually overtaking the latter. The chart is based on New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS) data. Credit: NZACS/David Hooker NZ Adult Daily Smoking vs Vaping Prevalence 2018-2025 (NZHS) % adults (15+)