O i l O u t l oo k
Schmude with ImpactWeather, the winter in the Northeast and
mid-Atlantic should be colder than average this year and in line with
the types of winters we used to experience in the mid to late 1970s.
ImpactWeather is a StormGeo Company, and serves as the full-time
weather department for hundreds of companies around the globe,
empowering them to make the smartest business decisions possible
when faced with weather-related challenges.
"There variety of things I look at when I put together these longterm forecasts together, but they really hone in on water temperature
particularly across the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic basin," said
Schmude. "When you have warmer than normal water that leads
to something called atmospheric blocking which is higher pressure
developing in the upper atmosphere which can deflect the jet stream
more north to south than west to east. That will drive colder air that's
built up in the Arctic region southward. Right now, and compared
to 2012, we're seeing a dramatic change in the water temperature
profiles across the North Pacific. The waters are warmer than normal,
in fact much warmer than normal, and that is a key signal that we
could see considerably more atmospheric blocking across the United
States particularly the eastern United States as we go through the late
fall and into the winter, which could bring down a much colder than
normal weather and more unsettled type conditions."
Schmude notes that for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic the
cold weather will probably start out slowly late fall into early winter,
though there is the possibility of a significant winter storm during this
time. The action will really begin to pick up after the New Year.
"In the early part of 2014 I'm seeing higher than normal pressure
across most of the Eastern North Pacific—the Gulf of Alaska—
extending eastward into Canada and the Pacific Northwest," said
Schmude. "That is a telltale sign that we are going to seeing more
of a blocking pattern shaping up, and I'm also seeing some indication of the southern storm track as well. This is where things really
get interesting, and I'm seeing lower than normal pressure and a
stronger than normal Hudson Bay polar vortex shaping up that will
tend to bring colder than normal temperatures downward across the
Northeast United States toward the Gulf Coast. That type of pattern
not only brings colder than normal temperatures and above normal
frequency of lake effect snow squalls and snowstorms, but also we
could see a higher than normal stretch of mid-Atlantic and Northeast
winter storm systems shaping up across the winter season."
Unfortunately, the same does not hold true for marketers and
dealers in the Northwest. Schmude anticipates a warmer winter with
temperatures 2° to 4° above averages. l F O N
www.fueloilnews.com | FUEL OIL NEWS | October 2013
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