Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/211845
TRENDS AND TIDBITS continued from page 73 2013 WorldSteel Short Range Outlook The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2013 and 2014. Worldsteel forecasts that global apparent steel use will increase by 3.1 percent to 1,475 Mt in 2013, following growth of 2.0 percent in 2012. In 2014, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow further by 3.3 percent and will reach 1,523 Mt. Worldsteel Economics Committee Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff provided the following update: "The key risks in the global economy – the eurozone crisis and a hard landing for the Chinese economy – which we identified in our last SRO issued in April, have continued to stabilize through the past six months. Our underlying assumption remains that the U.S. will resolve its fiscal constraint soon. The correction in the eurozone has been more severe than we forecasted, but the improvement seen recently is now expected to continue for the rest of 2013. Major emerging economies, particularly India and Brazil, have not performed as hoped, mainly due to key structural issues. These factors have led to a lower steel demand performance than predicted across the world, with China being the one exception. Steel demand in 2013 is now forecasted to grow in China by 6 percent. Thus, despite steel demand growing by only 0.7 percent in the rest of the world, total global steel demand will grow by 3.1 percent. "In 2014, we expect to see continued recovery in global steel demand, with the developed economies overall returning to positive growth. At the same time, we expect slower growth in China. With risks within the developed world receding, some uncertainty is emerging from developing countries due to unresolved structural issues, political instability and volatile financial markets. All in all, despite economic conditions for the global steel industry remaining uncertain and challenging, we are forecasting further growth for steel demand in 2014. "Following a 2.9 percent increase in 2012, apparent steel use in China is expected to grow by 6 percent in 2013 to 699.7 Mt, reflecting the impact of the government's stimulus measures focused on infrastructure. However, steel demand in 2014 is expected to slow to 3 percent growth, as the Chinese government's efforts to rebalance the economy continue to restrain investment activities. "In India, steel demand is expected to grow by 3.4 percent to 74.0 Mt in 2013, following 2.6 percent growth in 2012, as high inflation and structural problems are constraining steel using sectors' activities. In 2014, steel demand is expected to grow by 5.6 percent, helped by accelerated attempts to implement structural reforms. "The economic situation in Japan has improved in 2013 due to government stimulus measures, and steel demand is revised up to show 0.1 percent growth to 64.0 Mt. However, the outlook for 2014 is less positive, with fears surrounding the consequences of a new consumption tax, manufacturing production relocation from Japan and rapidly escalating energy prices. Steel demand is expected to contract by -1.6 percent. "In the U.S., after growth of 7.8 percent in 2012 due to generally strong steel using sector activity, apparent steel use in 2013 is forecast to grow by just 0.7 percent to 96.9 Mt. In 2014, steel demand is expected to increase by 3 percent, aided by Story continued on page 77 Apparent Steel Use (ASU) Short Range Outlook for Apparent Steel Use, finished steel products (2012-2014) Regions European Union (27) Other Europe CIS NAFTA Central & South America Africa Middle East Asia & Oceania World Developed Economies Emerging & Developing Economies China BRIC MENA World excl. China ASU, Mt 2012 140 35 57 132 47 27 49 943 1 430 390 1 040 660 799 63 770 Growth Rates, % 2013 (e) 2014 (f) 135 37 59 132 49 28 49 986 1 475 384 1 091 700 843 64 775 138 38 61 136 51 30 53 1 016 1 523 390 1 133 721 871 69 803 2012 -9.5 4.3 4.5 8.4 3.1 7.9 -1.3 2.8 2.0 -1.7 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.2 1.1 2013 (e) 2014 (f) -3.8 5.5 3.0 0.2 2.8 4.3 1.3 4.6 3.1 -1.6 4.9 6.0 5.6 1.7 0.7 2.1 4.6 3.5 3.2 5.0 8.2 6.3 3.0 3.3 1.7 3.8 3.0 3.3 7.3 3.5 e - estimation, f - forecast IDA UNIVERSAL November-December 2013 75