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38 • JUNE 2011 • WORLD FENCE NEWS Our ever-changing landscape continued from page 36 others have stopped being imported from Japan at this time. Depending on whether or not the severity of this problem grows or lessens, the list could grow. Oh, yes, there is the continual rise of commodity prices, which, as stated earlier, has created severe price hikes in food and energy at this point, and based on the speculators who are con- tinuing to drive the prices higher with- out a real shortage in sight, who knows where they will wind up? Five dollars for a gallon of gasoline, $4 for a loaf of bread? Who knows? With all that said, consumer confi- dence has continued to improve as people become aware of the upswing in the economy and the potential uptick in hiring, once again. However, while the consumer spending picture will most likely im- prove to around 3% or slightly under by year end, growth will likely be slow after the payroll tax cut expires in 2012. The Federal Reserve is manag- ing to keep interest rates down for now, but we will see how long it will be able to continue with inflation ris- ing and quantitative easing, or QE2 if you prefer, scheduled to end later on this year (barring another round). QE3?? As far as the housing market is concerned, new housing construction continues to be down in many areas of the country, but has shown some im- provement in the Northeast and Mid- west. However, sales of existing homes are slowing from previous improve- ment numbers because tax credits for first time buyers are ending and there is a lack of financing availability; in other words, banks are making it much tougher to get a home loan. With all that said, the Northeast market, after a slow start because of the winter, has seen an increase in business and is likely to show around a 12% gain by year end. The Midwest has been slow to pick up because of such factors as rising prices of steel, which are affecting the bidding process, and customers are looking to obtain “guaranteed prices” for their bids. There are other issues impacting this area that will probably keep them from picking up till the summer this year. The Southeast continues to be slow; while bidding is steady, it isn’t terrific and there is a tendency to have commercial jobs re-bid until a more “reasonable” price can be reached. Also, there are extenuating factors which continue to plague this area and likewise will keep expectations low for 2011. Finally, the Southwest market seems to be very competitive, and in addition to the number of GCs bidding for work, there are a number of spe- cialty trades and residential fence con- tractors all trying to compete for the same jobs. All the while, residential construction is virtually non-existent. We have covered a lot of ground here, and as the year continues to un- fold, there will be some solutions, and in some cases, more questions to be answered and more problems to be solved. By now, all of us hopefully are aware of what goes on around the world and how our businesses are im- pacted on a daily basis in one form or another. Unfortunately, there is a lot less certainty regarding, for instance, the outcome of the revolutionary ac- tivity that is continuing to unfold in the Middle East and North Africa and to what extent the result of any one “civil war” will impact us in our nation and more specifically our businesses in both the short term and the long term. I believe, as I stated in my original Crystal Ball forecast in December, that we, as a nation, will continue to make positive progress, perhaps taking a side step or even a back step along the way. As always, I encourage all of you to be tuned in to your specific markets and to tailor information as need be to help you stay on top of developments and to realize that PROFIT IS NOT A DIRTYWORD!™ World Fence News contributing editor Jim Lucci is president of Man- agement Motivational Associates of Freeport, N.Y., and for many years has written a monthly column on business management and issues which affect fence company owners and managers. He is a major contributor to the Fencer’s Field Report which appears monthly in World Fence News. See the ad for Management Motivational As- sociates in this month’s issue.