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tobaccoasia 37 Not surprisingly, the law has already sparked controversy. The Russian Association of Restau- rateurs and Hoteliers, together with the movement "For the rights of smokers", has launched a peti- tion demanding to postpone or reject the restric- tions on smoking in restaurants, cafés, and bars, fearing losses of profit. Such efforts might postpone the inevitable, but they are unlikely to succeed. Russia is now in the grips of one of the toughest anti-smoking legislation in the world. Some depu- ties of the State Duma say that there are attempts to soften the anti-tobacco bill. But Nikolai Gera- simenko, deputy head of the Russian State Duma Committee for Public Health, is unmoved: "Under no circumstances are we going to support mea- sures aimed at loosening the law." Excise tax policy The overall tax policy for the years 2015-2017 was approved by the Russian government this May. In particular, it states that in 2015, the excise tax on cigarettes is expected to increase by 20% to ₽960 (US$26.66) per 1,000 sticks, plus 9% of the estimated value calculated on the basis of the maximum retail price, but not less than ₽1,250 (US$34.70) per 1,000 sticks. In 2016, this figure will go up 28% compared to the previous year, to ₽1,200 per 1,000 sticks, plus 9.5% of the estimated value, but not less than ₽1,600 per 1,000. In 2017, the excise tax should already amount to ₽1,320 per 1,000 sticks, plus 10%, but not less than ₽1,760. According to expert estimates, it would mean that by 2017, the average price of a pack of cigarettes will have been nearly ₽90. But then the Ministry of Finance proposed to adjust the excise duties, including those on to- bacco. A new draft called "The main guidelines of budgetary policy for 2015 and for the planned pe- riod of 2016 and 2017" was published on July 10. It defines the growth of the ad valorem component of the rates as 14%, 16% and 18% in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively, with minor adjustments to the second component of the rates. The ministry of finance believes that the adjusted arrangement would not significantly increase the tax burden on the popular budget varieties of cigarettes, yet will still increase fiscal revenues from higher taxation of luxury brands. Such an adjustment, according to the ministry, could bring in an additional ₽16.6 bil- lion in 2015, ₽16.6 billion in 2016, and as much as ₽96.2 billion in 2017. This draft document has not yet been voted on by the government, however. But the vast experience of tobacco multina- tionals in many other countries shows that a sharp increase in excise taxes and, consequently, cigarette