Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/550316
54 tobaccoasia It was hard to find a cheerful tobacco grower at any of the grower meetings or trade shows that are the distinguishing characteristic of winter in the American tobacco belt. "Every flue-cured grower has received the news that contract volumes are calculating to be drastically reduced for the next season," said Tim Yarbrough, a flue-cured grower from Prospect Hill, N.C., north of Durham. "Every conversation among growers is about the bleak forecast of real leaf demand. It isn't easy to understand how we seemingly find ourselves in this oversupply situa- tion all of a sudden." But some of the factors involved are not so hard to identify, said Yarbrough, who is currently presi- dent of the Tobacco Growers Association of N.C. "We now know that in the US flue-cured crop was in excess of 500 million pounds (m.lbs)," he said at the association's annual meeting, which took place at the Southern Farm Show on Feb- ruary 6. "North Carolina marketed 440 m.lbs, so maybe the belt-wide total was as much as 515 to 520 m.lbs." It has been estimated that the amount of con- tract issued last year was in the range of 460 to 480 m. lbs, said Yarbrough. "(So) we overproduced by perhaps as much as 13%." Curiously, the entire 2014 crop seems to have been absorbed by the trade. There were several factors outside the US, he said. "Brazil over-produced last year and has an accumulated inventory greater than 300 million pounds that is working its way into the global mar- ketplace," he said. "We also hear that the current crop in South America is too large, which further contributes to the oversupply situation." Worst of all may be the fact that a "mega vol- ume" of inventory in China has been offered to the global marketplace at a highly discounted price. "Let's assume (or, should we say, hope) that this is primarily filler style quality," said Yarbrough. "(But) at a bargain price, it most certainly can be described as usable." So how much will Americans produce this sea- son? On February 2, just before the annual meeting, Universal Leaf issued its initial projection for 2015. New Challenges for American Tobacco in 2015 Looking for a more efficient cure: Ivan Wilson (left) and Glenn Wilson (right), both tobacco farmers from Caswell County, N.C., discuss possible flue-curing equipment purchases with Bob Pope (center) of Long Barns at the Southern Farm Show last February 6. Used costs less than new: These 37-year-old curing barns have been renovated to the point that they are as good as new—for far less than what it would cost to build a new one. By Chris Bickers