Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/572389
www.goodfruit.com GOOD FRUIT GROWER OCTOBER 2015 19 Goldens removed Golden Delicious, which was Washington's No. 2 variety from the 1950s until 2003, when it was eclipsed by Gala, is dropping quickly. This year's crop, estimated at 8.6 million boxes, will be the smallest volume since 1973. And that's a positive sign, says Fryhover, as the industry tries to fi nd an equilibrium between supply and demand for the variety. Further drops in production are likely in view of recent unprofi table returns. "If you had to choose one variety that's being taken out faster than any other, it's Golden," he said. He expects production to bottom out at 5 to 6 million boxes, of which half will probably be exported to Mexico. Fryhover sees good opportunities overseas for Gala, which is extremely close to overtaking Red Delicious as Washington's No. 1 variety, a position held by Red Delicious since it toppled Winesap in the 1940s. Washington is estimating a Gala crop of 29.2 million packed boxes this season, just 2.4 million shy of the Red Delicious estimate. If the industry is to sell crops in the 150-million-box range again, at least 60 million will need to be exported, Fryhover says, as 90 million boxes is probably an opti- mistic estimate of how many Washington apples the domestic market can take. So that will mean that the percentage of Red Delicious apples exported will need to increase from 50 to 65 percent and Gala will have to be a more signifi cant export variety as it moves into the No. 1 slot. Last year, the state exported 8.8 million boxes of Galas, and Fryhover said the target is to see 15 million shipped into export markets within the next couple of years as overseas consumers become more familiar with the variety. Prospects for Fuji overseas seem less promising as China is a major producer of the variety and an active exporter to Southeast Asia. Taiwan, to which China does not have access, is a good market for Washington Fujis, but there's a limit to how many that market can take. Of the 4 million boxes of Fuji apples exported last year, 78 percent went to Taiwan. Last season, Mexico, Washington's largest export mar- ket, took almost 15 million boxes of Washington apples, mostly Red and Golden Delicious, but Mexico will have a large crop of its own this year. Fryhover foresees opportunities for Fuji in Mexico, but it's a competitive market, and consumers there will need to be wooed with well-colored Fujis, rather than lower grades, he said. Other varieties Prospects for other varieties overseas are more lim- ited. The tart Cripps Pink apple, for example, would have less appeal than sweet varieties for Asian consumers. And Honeycrisp, which sold for an average of $54 a box last year, could be too expensive for traditional market- ing challenges, though it might be a good fi t for online food retailers in China. And then, producers are going to fi nd the domestic market a safer bet for their newer proprietary varieties. There's good demand and they can ship to customers in a few days, rather than a few weeks, and feel confi dent of getting paid. But some shippers and marketers are beginning to lay the groundwork for the larger crops that loom. The industry knows it can produce at least 150 million packed boxes, the volume harvested a year ago. Fryhover said Columbia Marketing International (CMI) has begun introducing Ambrosia to international markets, though there might not be an immediate need. This year's crop may be shorter, but there's no place for complacency, he said. "It's going to require the Apple Commission in particular to work harder just because we know what the potential is for next year. • "If you had to choose one variety that's being taken out faster than any other, it's Golden." —Todd Fryhover Growers & Fruit Industry Truck Buyers. . . Partner up with your GMC Business Elite Dealer Lee Peterson Motors Every dollar counts in the ag business, and you need hard working trucks from a reliable dealer you can trust, your GMC Business Elite Dealer. 410 S. First Street • Yakima • 509-575-6372 L P MOTORS .com www Click! Drive! Save! MON-FRI 8 AM - 6 PM SAT 8 AM - 5 PM SUN 11 AM - 4 PM Business Elite Dealer. 2015 GMC Sierra 1500 Regular Cab Standard Box Rich Ausink Fleet Manager Jim Peterson General Manager The right truck customized to your specific agricultural businees needs. rich@lpmotors.com jim@lpmotors.com