Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/603228
20 DECEMBER 2015 Good Fruit Grower www.goodfruit.com KEYNOTE SPEAKER Peter Zeihan will deliver the annual Batjer Address at 8:45 a.m. December 7 at the Yakima Convention Center. CHAOS in international markets KEYNOTE SPEAKER Peter Zeihan will deliver the annual Batjer Address at 8:45 a.m. December 7 at the Yakima Convention Center. CHAOS international markets China's need for food will help open its borders, says a geopolitical strategist. by Melissa Hansen P eter Zeihan isn't an orchardist and doesn't pre- tend to know what's involved in producing tree fruit. But his take on geopolitical trends and where the world is headed is relevant to tree fruit growers who make decisions that last for decades. One prediction of keen interest to tree fruit growers he will share as keynote speaker at the Washington State Tree Fruit Association's annual meeting is his forecast for China, a country he says is on the verge of output collapse, a drop in goods produced. "You're about to lose China as a major source of competition as it moves from being a major competitor to becoming a major consumer," he said to Good Fruit Grower in advance of giving the meeting's Batjer memo- rial address on December 7 in Yakima, Washington. For industries that depend on China for global sup- ply chains to produce cheap goods, like electronics, the future is grim because they will soon lose a low-cost sup- plier. "But for agriculture, China's need for food is going to increase. For growers in the Pacifi c Northwest, with your close proximity, it's the best of possible scenarios," he said. Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist with an economic development background, uses geopolitics to figure out what's going on in the world and what will happen. Geopolitics is the study of place and how place shapes everything from cuisine and culture to war and power. "Certain things come from certain geographies," he explained. For example, the Midwest, with some of the most pro- ductive land in the world, is all about corn, soybeans, and wheat. Places located on the banks of a river, or where multiple rivers meet, are fi nancial centers. Love of maps Zeihan was fascinated with maps at an early age. Now he studies maps of all kinds, from climate, soils, and topography to street maps showing urban housing and densities. Hort Show Preview COURTESY PETER ZEIHAN