Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/603228
www.goodfruit.com Good Fruit Grower DECEMBER 2015 21 Unexpected competition I n the next 20 to 30 years—the average life of an apple orchard—geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan predicts the biggest challenge for tree fruit growers in the Pacific Northwest could come from an unexpected source. For much of the world, the loss of international market stability in the coming decades will be painful, though least painful in the United States, he says. "Food production zones around the world will be facing catastrophic failure because farming requires good credit and safe trading environments." He believes high-cost land in countries like Brazil and China that went into agricultural pro- duction in the last ten years will come out of agri- culture; however, orchards in the United States will continue to produce because of their high investment costs. Market and income adjustments will happen quickly in commodities like corn and wheat, but more slowly in permanent crops like tree fruit. "The market adjustments won't happen as fast or be as hard for tree fruit growers, and there will be a longer income tail." Additionally, he expects a long-term change in global consumption patterns due to what he calls the world's lack of 25-year-olds. "That situation won't be rectified in our lifetime. China's one-child society worked very well but now they're without a young, working generation." But the biggest challenge for Washington and other West Coast growers, as part of fallout related to the shale and oil boom, could come from an unexpected location. Instead of competing against imported fruit, Washington growers may find that the energy boom has dramatically shifted their traditional competitive advantages among U.S. growers. "The biggest challenge for Washington's tree fruit industry is potential competition from grow- ers in places like upstate New York where growers will have access to cheap energy," said Zeihan. Washington tree fruit growers have lower per acre production costs compared to those in other states, but "that energy question is huge." In the years ahead, fuel and energy costs east of the Rockies are forecast to come way down, but not so for those west of the Rockies. Zeihan explains that west of the Rockies, consumers will be held hostage to energy swings from international markets, and he predicts the energy price gap will widen within the United States. "You could see gasoline for $2 per gallon in Kansas compared to $9 per gallon in Washington State," he said. "The shale and oil boom is great for America as a whole, but it's not going to help the West Coast grower." While he warns West Coast tree fruit growers to prepare for starker competition from within the country, on the international front, "you can eat anybody's lunch." —M. Hansen "Understanding a place starts with its topography," he said. "Once you understand the patterns you can start to understand how people think, how they pay for things, what their values are, and you can figure out what makes their country work. When you know what to look for, you can understand how patterns interact and shape global events." Throughout global history, powerful countries have enjoyed some type of geographical advantage. The United States has the single largest chunk of contiguous arable land (the Midwest) and the most navigable water- ways in the world, according to Zeihan. The Midwest, with its Mississippi River, has 15,000 miles of navigable waters; there are 18,000 miles total in the United States. "A big chunk of that water—the Columbia River—is A new standard in spotted wing drosophila detection • Early detection in low population density • Superior attraction in wide range of crops and locations • Extended field life • Scentry SWD Lure performed better than competing lure systems in recent field trials SWD LURE & TRAP SOLUTION Source: Dr. Elizabeth H. Beers, 2014 WSU-TFREC Trece™ is a trademark owned by Trece, Inc. Contact your local distributor or call 1-800-735-5323 Visit our website, www.scentry.com