Vol. 1 2016

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2 0 1 6 V 1 | BULLDOG | 7 TRENDS A roundup of the numbers that drive your business. BY 2020, advances in technology, including robotics and artifi cial intelligence, are set to replace 5.1 million jobs, with 10 percent of those losses coming in construction and extraction, according to a report from the World Economic Forum. The good news for construction workers? The report notes that "technological disruptions such as robotics and machine learning — rather than completely replacing existing occupations and job catego- ries — are likely to substitute specifi c tasks previously carried out as part of these jobs, freeing workers up to focus on new tasks and lead- ing to rapidly changing core skill sets in these occupations." For construction that could mean operators transitioning from work- ing inside the machine to a command center where they oversee the operation of multiple machines with the help of telematics, automation and drone monitoring. Another bright spot: Such technological advances should generate an additional 339,000 new jobs in architecture and engineering. SAFETY And they don't take coffee breaks CONSTRUCTION $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 15-year cumulative spend per truck 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Lube Tires Parts Service $400,000 CLASS 8 = $345,000 THAT'S THE ESTIMATED total cost to own a Class 8 truck over 15 years, according to MacKay & Co. Initial purchase price ranges from $113,000 for a day cab to around $125,000 for a sleeper, but as truck owners know, that's only the beginning. Expect to add another $20,600 each year on average, which breaks down to $7,200 in parts, $2,900 in tires, $600 in oil and lube and $9,900 in service costs. And that's not counting fuel. As the chart shows, costs for parts and service really start to accelerate around year fi ve. Something to consider when you're determining your trade cycle. Be sure to check with your Mack dealer about how Mack Trucks helps lower your total cost of ownership. WHICH BUSINESS COSTS do fl eets predict will show the biggest increases in 2016? At 34 percent and 30 percent respectively, health care (including insurance) and driver pay and recruiting costs top the lists of fl eets responding to CCJ's Annual Outlook Survey. Tied for a distant third are tractors and liability insurance at 8.6 percent. "It will help that fuel has dropped, but health insurance will kill us," said one fl eet respondent. "And good driver availability will require some skill and luck." SAFETY Health care, drivers a one-two punch COSTS ALL IN ALL, 2016 is shaping up to be a pretty good year with some major economic indicators, such as freight volume, housing and employment, showing positive signs. What to expect in 2016 ECONOMY THE AMERICAN TRUCKING ASSOCIATIONS projects average annual growth rate in truck volume of for-hire and private motor carriers will climb by 2.65 percent in 2016, then level off to 2.1 percent for 2017-21 and 1.1 percent for 2022-26. Steady growth in truck volume (MILLIONS OF TONS) 15% BUMP IN HOUSING Increase in both construction and sales of single-family homes; follows housing's best year since the Great Recession. 4% GROWTH IN RETAIL SALES Versus 4.6% growth in 2015 Down from 5% at end of 2015 4.6% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2.6% INTEREST RATES (10-year T-notes) 2.3% INFLATION 2.5% GDP Up from 2.4% in 2015 Source: Kiplinger's 15,000 12,000 9,000 2015 2016 2021 2026 Up from 0.7% in 2015 Versus 1.9% currently

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