12 JUNE 2016 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www.fueloilnews.com
FUELS
EIA NE WS
El Niño is a large-scale warming
event that affects temperature and
precipitation patterns in the Pacific
Ocean. It occurs every three to five
years, and it is caused by warmer-
than-normal ocean temperatures in
the east-central equatorial Pacific.
El Niño events typically last nine to
12 months. The 2015-16 El Niño
was one of the three strongest on
record, and contributed to the warm
winter weather experienced in the
United States.
In addition to record-high winter
temperatures reducing the demand
for space heating, abundant natural
gas supplies and low crude oil prices
were major factors in lowering heating
fuel prices. Warm winter tempera-
tures reduced the overall number of
U.S. heating degree days (HDD), a
temperature-based measurement
reflecting the heating needs of build-
ings in a location. At the national
level, the number of heating degree
days was 18% lower than the previ-
ous winter season and 12% lower
t h a n t h e N a t i o n a l O c e a n i c a n d
Atmospheric Administration's fore-
cast in September 2015.
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE
FOUR MOST COMMON
HEATING FUELS INCLUDE:
Natural gas. Nearly half of all U.S.
homes use natural gas for space heat-
ing. Residential natural gas prices
during the winter of 2015-16 were
about 5.6% lower than in the pre-
vious winter. Throughout this past
w i n t e r , n a t u r a l g a s i n v e n t o r i e s
remained high. As of April 7, working
natural gas in underground storage
increased to 1,472 billion cubic feet,
69% higher than the level at the same
time in 2015.
Heating oil. Prices for petroleum-
based fuel have also been lower because
of falling crude oil prices. Residential
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2016
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, Climate Prediction Center
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, Climate Prediction Center
U.S. heating degree days (October 2015 − March 2016)
heating degree days
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
average of
previous
ten winters
winter 2015 — 16
October November December January February March
-12%
-14%
-27%
0%
-17%
-26%
difference
from normal
U.S. total heating degree days in winter months (October through March)
heating degree days
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
0
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16
NOAA plus 10%
NOAA forecast
NOAA minus 10%
actual
Departure of Average Temperature from Normal (°F)
December 1, 2015 − February 29, 2016
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, NORA
Computer Generated Contours
Based on Preliminary Data
+12
+10
+8
+6
+4
+2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
