Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/737343
STiR coffee and tea 45 STiR coffee and tea photos by Tessa L. Tucker STiR coffee and tea photo by Tessa L. Tucker Families in coffee producing regions fare better than most. The coffee industry employs 15 million Ethiopians and garners the largest share of foreign exchange dollars needed to raise the country's standard of living. predicts Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia will also experience severe losses. Producing countries like El Salvador, Nicara- gua, and Honduras will lose out the most, accord- ing to Peter Läderach, a climate change specialist and co-author of the study. Brazil can expect a production drop of 25% by 2050 while East Africa could benefit by putting into place new growing practices, new varietals, and by moving upslope. But countries with higher altitudes must con- tend with the fact these lands are forested, home to indigenous communities; and they are often designated as preserves or parks set aside to pro- tect biodiverse environments. Upslope migration Davis told ICO delegates there is "huge resilience potential overall for the coffee landscape." A "full migration and full intervention" scenario could re- sult in new "highly suitable" acreage where farm- ers are not growing coffee in the present day. One advantage is that Ethiopia has a lot of land higher than 2,000 meters. The resilience strat- egy depends considerably on migration of coffee farms upslope where temperatures where there will be greater suitability, he explained. In Ethiopia moving upslope mostly involves reforestation. "A lot of that land actually does not have a great value could have, if it grew coffee," he said. What else can be done? he asked. "If you suc- cessfully change the climate on the farm, you can buffer climate change in some areas," he said. What about coffee varietals (cultivars), any po- tential there? "Yes, but not as much as you might suppose based on multi-variety trials. Depending on where cultivars are grown even a small increase in rainfall has a much greater impact on productiv- ity of the cultivars tested," he said. Other big questions remain, such as who is go- ing to pay the price of resilience? "At the moment we are experimenting to see how much we can adapt against the major climate variables and particularly water/rainfall," writes Davis. In June his team set up in-the-field experi- ments but will not have sufficient data for at least a year, he said. "We are also in the process of identifying 'goldi- locks' zones in light of our findings and new research on the 'East Africa Climate Paradox'," he said. Rainfall paradox "East Africa is currently facing something of a climate paradox," writes Bradfield Lyon with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University. "Over roughly the past 15 years, the region has been experiencing an increased frequency of drought, particularly dur- ing the "long rains" season from March-May. In a seeming contradiction, there is a general consen- sus among climate change projections that the re- gion of East Africa will become wetter as a result of anthropogenic climate change by the end of the current century," he writes. Davis explains that high heat combined with changing rainfall patterns will play a large role in limiting where coffee can be grown. SCAA presentation In April Davis addressed the Specialty Coffee As- sociation of America (SCAA) Re: Co Symposium in Atlanta, Ga. Some origins and terroirs could disappear, regions like Harrar may not produce much coffee by the end of the century, said Davis. Farm-level modeling predicts over several decades a severe decline of land currently suitable for arabica cultivation