Good Fruit Grower

December 2016

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10 DECEMBER 2016 GOOD FRUIT GROWER www.goodfruit.com "C ontinuous Change," the theme of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association 112th Annual Meeting, is a familiar challenge to the Washington tree fruit industry. Every year in its 112-year history, this meeting seems to confront a "new normal." What may be distinctive now, however, is the pace of that change — the scary rapidity with which the new normal becomes old. Everything about the tree fruit industry now moves at an accelerated pace. Globalization and the digital revolution have been catalytic in this phase shift. Every once in a while, though, the continuity of change is disrupted sig- nificantly. For example, look back at the hugely disruptive impact of genuinely transformational technologies: federal irrigation projects, dwarfing rootstocks and high-density systems, new scion cultivars, PVC pipe, integrated pest man- agement and biocontrol, plant growth regulators, field packing into bins, controlled atmosphere and 1-methyl- cyclopropene, high throughput optical sorting and so on. The success of our tree fruit industry owes much to these innovations, both hugely disruptive and hugely positive. Certainly, it is easy enough to look backward, identifying and tracking such disruptions, from initial introduc- tion through extensive adoption. One excellent source for that retrospective examination is the proceedings of our annual meetings. However, when these technologies were actually new, it was not at all clear whether they were winners or losers, game-changers or hype. This meeting in 2016 should help answer that tough, and often very expensive, ques- tion. Several sessions will feature exciting presentations on potentially disruptive technologies that will help our indus- try deal with challenges like consumer expectations, food safety, maximizing revenues, and transitioning to the next generation of growers. Now the question becomes: "Which of these technologies should I be incor- porating into my tree fruit operation, and when?" A useful approach to assessing the risk of investing in a given technology or application uses the Gartner Hype Cycle (www.gartner.com/technology/ research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp), which identities the five key phases of a technology's life cycle (see graphic). The cost: The benefit of early adoption versus a wait-and-see approach is exceptionally difficult to predict, but those decisions based on solid, science-based informa- tion can help separate real drivers from hype. That is exactly what many of the pre- sentations in the WSTFA annual meeting seek to do, providing solid, relevant examinations of potentially disruptive technologies like a prototype robotic harvester, commercialization status of the new Washington State University apple cultivar known as Cosmic Crisp, new rootstocks, trellis engineering, sol- id-set canopy spraying, overhead netting, optimizing water use, the WSU Decision Aid System, and decision support sys- tems for crop protection and crop load management. The technologies central to many of these presentations can be traced to the National Tree Fruit Technology Road map, the subject of the 37th Batjer Address. The road map, emerging out of the turbulent economic times of the late 1990s, was a collaborative effort of indus- try stakeholders and the U.S. research and extension community. It was an explicit and pioneering effort to develop a proactive strategy to enhance the prof- itability and sustainability of our national tree fruit industries in the face of global- ized trade and technology. Road map participants believed future markets for our products would be consumer-driven and quality-oriented, with production increasingly distributed worldwide. Further, the road map asserted the very technologies driving this shifting market are the ones that would empower our agricultural producers to compete successfully. It was an attempt to define our future rather than simply react as it zoomed toward us, developing and adopting new technologies at the speed of the real word. While aspirational, it was also oriented toward outcomes of real world significance. The road map also featured a novel public-private partnership. A dedicated team comprising Jim Cranney, then at USApple, Phil Baugher of Adams County Nursery, Herb Aldwinckle of Cornell University, Clark Seavert of Oregon State University and Dariusz Swietlik of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service joined Fran Pierce of Washington State University and me, then in my role as manager of the Washington Tree Fruit Research Commission. Initially driven by the des- perate economic situation faced by the Tree fruit technology road map "The New Normal: Continuous Change" by Jim McFerson Hort Show Preview Washington State Tree Fruit Association Annual Meeting Batjer Address Jim McFerson Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity VISIBILITY MATURITY Gartner Hype Cycle This chart identities the five key phases of a new technology's life cycle and can be used to assess the risk of investing in the technology. SOURCE: GARTNER.COM The road map, emerging out of the turbulent economic times of the late 1990s, ... was an explicit and pioneering effort to develop a proactive strategy to enhance the profitability and sustainability of our national tree fruit industries in the face of globalized trade and technology.

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