Good Fruit Grower

January 2017

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www.goodfruit.com GOOD FRUIT GROWER JANUARY 1, 2017 11 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 TONS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $100 $215 $145 $180 $195 $210 $250 $280 $225 $110 $110 $120 WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION WASHINGTON STATE PRODUCTION U.S. TOTAL PRODUCTION U.S. TOTAL PRODUCTION U.S. TOTAL PRODUCTION U.S. TOTAL PRODUCTION U.S. TOTAL PRODUCTION Concord grape prices stay soft TONS TONS TONS TONS CONCORD CASH PRICE PER TON IN WASHINGTON 2005-2016 Concord growers won't see much relief from low prices after the total U.S. crop is expected to top 400,000 tons for a fourth straight year. (estimated) SOURCE: USDA JARED JOHNSON/GOOD FRUIT GROWER Meanwhile, Michigan expected a crop of 60,000 tons, 50 percent above the aver- age of 40,000 tons and the state's third above-average crop in a row. "It's another big production for the East region," Ball said. That's despite some drought worries earlier in the year and fall rains that threatened Brix levels in some places. All those big numbers are the problem for prices. The large national crop only adds to inventories of juice concentrate that continue to languish in storage, keeping prices low for growers bringing grapes to the processor. In 2016, cash prices for Washington growers inched up from $110 to $120 per ton, though they remain in a down cycle far below the 2012 spike of $280, Ball said. Cash prices in the Eastern regions were about the same as Washington this year, falling from about $160 in 2015. Even imports have slowed in recent years due to oversupply and Americans' overall declining taste for juice. In 2015, the United States imported 45.8 million gallons, down from 78.9 million gallons in in 2007. Those imports compete directly with U.S. stocks. About 80 percent of imports come from Argentina. In reaction to the oversupply, growers have been pulling out Concord grapes, a trend Ball expects to continue, which he in turn expects to nudge prices up. "Next year I hope to come back with really awesome news," he quipped. "I'll try my best." Washington acreage has dropped by more than 20 percent since 2007 to a current estimated 18,760 acres, with growers pulling out vines to replace with hops, wine grapes or fruit trees. From discussions with processors, Ball antic- ipates Washington growers will remove between 200 and 400 more acres before next season. He does not expect growers to add any acreage for some time. Sunnyside's Art den Hoed is among those removing vines. Over the course of four years, den Hoed plans to have removed about 200 acres of Concord grapes, more than half his total, replacing them with cher- ries and Pink Lady and Envy apples, both club varieties. He plans to leave some Concords in low, frost-prone spots. "Ground's too expensive to have a crop that doesn't return," he said. Den Hoed sends his grapes to two Washington pro- cessors, Valley Processing in Sunnyside and Welch's in Grandview. Ironically, he praised the 2016 Concord harvest for its yield, timing and tonnage. Early season warmth sped up the growth, later season rains did not affect sugar lev- els and he never had to worry about frost. "It was a great year as far as the grapes go," he said. •

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