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14 FEBRUARY 2017 | FUEL OIL NEWS | www.fueloilnews.com FUELS EIA NE WS TRUCK START-UP TO BUILD HYDROGEN FUELING STATION NETWORK Nikola Motor Company of Salt Lake City, Utah, announced plans to construct 364 hydrogen-refueling stations. The announcement promptly followed the introduction of the Nikola One hydrogen fuel cell electric semi-truck, which utilizes a fully electric drivetrain powered by high-density lithium bat- teries and has a range of up to 1,200 miles. Construction of the new fueling stations is slated to begin in January 2018 and the stations are expected to be operating by late 2019, according to Trevor Milton, Nikola's chief executive. EIA PROJECTS U.S. WILL BE A NET ENERGY EXPORTER IN MOST CASES Annual Energy Outlook 2017, released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2050 based on eight cases (see chart). This is the first time that EIA is publishing projections through 2050 in the AEO tables. The United States becomes a net energy exporter in most AEO 2017 cases as petroleum liquid imports fall and natural gas exports rise. Exports are highest, and grow throughout the projection period, in the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, as favorable geology and technological developments combine to produce oil and gas at lower prices. The High Oil Price case provides favorable economic conditions for producers while restraining domestic consumption, enabling the most rapid tran- sition to net exporter status. In all cases but the High Oil and Gas Resource Technology case, which assumes substantial improve- ments in production technology and more favorable resource availability, U.S. production declines in the 2030s, which slows or reverses projected growth in net energy exports. "EIA's projections show how advances in technology are driving oil and natural gas production, renewables penetration, and demand-side efficiencies and reshaping the energy future," EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a Jan. 5 statement issued upon release of the AEO. "The variation across the analysis cases of projected net energy export levels—as well as other findings in AEO 2017— demonstrates the importance of considering the full set of AEO cases." Alternative cases incorporate different key assumptions, reflecting market, technology, resource, and policy uncertainties that may affect future energy markets. OTHER KEY FINDINGS: Energy consumption is consistent across all AEO cases, bounded by the High and Low Economic Growth cases. In the Reference case, total energy consumption increases 5% between 2016 and 2040. As a significant portion of energy consumption is related to economic activity, energy consumption is projected to increase by approximately 11% in the High Economic Growth case, over 2016-40, and remain nearly flat in the Low Economic Growth Case. In all AEO cases, the electric power sector remains the larg- est consumer of primary energy. Energy production ranges from nearly flat in the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, to nearly 50% growth over 2016-40 in the High Resource and Technology Case. Unlike energy consumption, which varies less across AEO cases, pro- jections of energy production vary widely. Production growth is dependent on technology, resource, and market conditions. Total energy production increases by more than 20% in the Reference case, from 2016 through 2040, led by increases in crude oil and natural gas production. Energy related carbon dioxide emissions decline in most AEO cases, with the highest emissions projected in the No Clean Power Plan case. All of the AEO 2017 cases except the No Clean Power Plan case include the Clean Power Plan (CPP). In order to better focus EIA's resources on expanding its under- standing of the rapidly evolving energy markets, as well as to better represent new information in EIA's models and publica- tions, starting with AEO 2015, EIA has adopted a two-year release cycle for the AEO. A full edition of the AEO, including Issues in Focus articles, and in-depth updates on changes in Legislation and Regulations, and a large set of side cases with browser tables and spreadsheets for all cases is produced every second year. In years between the full editions, a shorter edition provides a smaller number of cases summarized in annotated presentation slides, with the standard set of AEO browser tables and spreadsheets containing the detailed mod- eling results. AEO 2017 is a shorter edition of the AEO. EIA continues to update and refine the market dynamics and technolo- gies in future AEOs, especially with the projection extended to 2050.The projec- tions from the AEO 2017 Reference and alternative cases are available at http:// www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo. l F O N Net energy trade quadrillion British thermal units 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2016 history projections net imports net exports Low Oil Price Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology High Economic Growth Reference Case Low Economic Growth High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology