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Fuel Oil News - March 2017

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www.fueloilnews.com | FUEL OIL NEWS | MARCH 2017 13 from an average of $2.35/gallon (gal) in January 2017 to an aver- age of $2.27/gal in February and then rise to $2.33/gal in March. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.39/ gal in 2017 and $2.44/gal in 2018. U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 bil- lion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.3 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, which was the first decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to increase by an average of 4.1 Bcf/d from the 2017 level. In January, average Henry Hub natural gas spot prices fell by 29 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu) from December levels to $3.30/MMBtu. Mild January temperatures, which were the warmest since 2006, contributed to lower prices. Increasing capacity for natural gas-fired electric generation, growing domestic natural gas consumption, and new export capabilities contribute to the forecast Henry Hub natural gas spot price rising from an average of $3.43/MMBtu in 2017 to $3.70/MMBtu in 2018. NYMEX contract values for April 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending February 2 suggest that a price range from $2.42/MMBtu to $4.38/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation of Henry Hub natural gas prices in April 2017 at the 95% confidence level. Total U.S. electricity generation from utility-scale plants averaged 11,150 gigawatthours per day in 2016. Forecast U.S. generation declines by 0.1% in 2017, then grows by 1.5% in 2018. EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity gen- eration from natural gas will fall from 34% last year to an average of 32% in 2017 as a result of higher expected natural gas prices. The forecast natural gas share is forecast to rise slightly to 33% in 2018. Coal's generation share rises from 30% in 2016 to average 31% in both 2017 and 2018. Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to provide 9% of electricity generation in 2017 and 10% in 2018. The generation share of hydropower is forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2017 to 2018, and the nuclear share declines slightly in 2018. Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, published February 7, 2017 by Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. EPA, FORD AND ROUSH CLEANTECH TO DISCUSS GHG PHASE TWO REGS AT GREEN TRUCK SUMMIT The Phase Two Fuel Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Delegated Assembly provision greatly expands the universe of potential clean-energy solution providers to the work truck indus- try. Now, downstream commercial vehicle upfitters or converters, through contractual agreement, can partner with regulated parties (often the original equipment chassis manufacturers) when their added technologies or fuel conversions achieve GHG reduction. These reductions can amount to an emission credit opportunity. A panel discussion on this new EPA provision entitled "Delegated Assembly Provisions in GHG Phase Two — A Potential Game-Changer for Multi-Stage Commercial Vehicles" will take place at the Green Truck Summit 2017, the conference on clean energy innovations held in conjunction with The Work Truck Show 2017. During the session — scheduled for Tuesday, March 14 from 2:15–3:15 p.m. — the following experts are to discuss ramifications and opportunities of this game-changing provision: Matt Spears, center director, heavy-duty diesel standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Rob Stevens, vice president strategy and engineering, Roush CleanTech Ken McAlinden, manager for on-board diagnostics and regulatory compliance, Ford Motor Company The Work Truck Show is produced by NTEA – The Association for the Work Truck Industry. It runs March 14–17 at the Indiana Convention Center in Indianapolis, Ind. Educational sessions begin March 14, and the exhibit hall is open March 15–17. Green Truck Summit general sessions are held March 14, and concurrent educational sessions run March 15–16. "This new delegated assembly concept can potentially foster much greater clean energy innovation because GHG-reducing technology and fuel systems added to incomplete vehicles may qualify as part of engine maker or work truck OEM compliance," says Doyle Sumrall, NTEA managing director. "Delegated assem- bly allows more parties to leverage the greenhouse gas reduction technologies they can put on a truck as part of the EPA compliance scheme. It's a great tactic to bring more minds to bear on expand- ing clean energy solutions for the work truck industry." The provision provides for all elements of the industry that work with a regulated party (chassis or engine OEM) to provide value and GHG reduction as part of the regulated parties' compli- ance with EPA requirements. Any GHG-reducing technology or fuel installed before the titling of a work truck counts as a carbon reduction for the regulated party if it is qualified and there is a con- tractual path. Examples include auxiliary power units, aerodynamic devices, hybrid components, electrification elements and natural gas fuel tanks. The Green Truck Summit brings together fleet managers, truck manufacturers and governmental and regulatory officials to share their experience, vision and outlook on how the industry can make an immediate impact on greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant reduction. Green Truck Summit attendees can choose from Work Truck Show and Green Truck Summit concurrent sessions on a wide variety of industry-specific topics and can explore the exhibit floor covering more than 500,000 square feet. Technical person- nel provide insight at exhibitor booths, and NTEA staff is on-site to answer technical and regulatory questions. Attendees can also meet industry suppliers and experience the latest advanced tech- nologies and alternative fuel applications by driving the newest commercial vehicles at the Ride-and-Drive March 15 and 16. Registration for the Green Truck Summit and The Work Truck Show 2017 is available at worktruck.show.com. New this year, Opening Reception and President's Breakfast tickets are not included in any registration package — they are only available separately. l F O N

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