Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/82527
LOGBOOK Trucking rebound outpacing economy, but remains fuzzy Trucking has recovered from the re- cession much better than the economy at large, but the rebound slowed in re- cent months, economist Jim Meil said at the Commercial Vehicle Outlook Conference in Dallas in August. Meil, vice president and chief econo- mist for Eaton Corp., rated the state of trucking a B+. That's largely due to a rebound in U.S. manufacturing (B) and nondefense capital spending (A-). He said other recovering domestic sectors are mining and residential and commercial construction. Truck freight should grow 3 percent this year and in 2013, though the gross domestic product will see only 2 percent growth in those years. "That's the fourth year of lackluster growth after the worst post-war recession," Meil said. During the recession, there was an estimated surplus of 175,000 Class 8 trucks, Meil said. Now there is a slight shortage. That's good for car- riers in terms of keeping their utilization rates and pricing high. Trucking has lost some business to rail intermodal due to the capacity crunch. Class 8 orders were strong bottom dropped out," he said. "Now we're in the fourth month of a slowdown in orders." The cause isn't obvious, but might be related to high levels of uncertainty among buyers. They are likely concerned about the economic impact of the election – mandated spending cuts for January 2013 – is handled. "Nobody really believes all these tax increases or spend- ing cuts will take place," Meil said. But even if only some do, it will present a "pretty the economy to overcome." Other uncertainty involves problems with the global economy, he said. Europe "is China, India and Brazil are not living up to expectations of be- ing dominant economic powers. – Max Heine 96 | Overdrive | October 2012 Text INFO to 50298 or visit ovdinfo.com