Better Roads Digital Magazine
Issue link: https://read.dmtmag.com/i/85902
The mass may be smaller and the velocity may be slower than desired, but the rock is rolling in the right direction. by Therese Dunphy, Editor-in-Chief Aggregates Manager 100 80 60 40 20 0 omentum is sometimes hard to define. In sports, it may be a crucial play that changes the outcome of the game. In business, however, it might be something as simple as a sale that leads to an unexpected customer base. Often, it may seem like a small pebble, but once it starts rolling downhill— gaining mass and velocity along the way — its im- pact can be significant. Movement alone, however, is not enough. Just look at the results of our forecast studies during the last eight years, and it's clear that not all momentum M 2011 Business Rating Trends Very Good Excellent 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Due to rounding, all numbers may not equal 100 percent of respondents. 2010 2011 2012 (forecast) Poor Fair Good Looking forward, 6.6% of operators expect an excellent year in 2012; the highest number reported in this category since 2007. Those expecting a very good year dropped slightly from 2011 results (from 13.2 to 12.3%), but anticipated results are generally more favorable for 2012 following reports of a slightly improved year in 2011. Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies 19a January 2012 Better Roads for 2012 is good momentum. For example, consider the in- dustry's historical response to business conditions. When answering our first forecast in 2004, 84.5 percent of respondents indicated positive business results (excellent, very good, or good). For a three- year window between 2008 and 2010, however, those numbers plummeted with an all-time low in 2009 when just one in three respondents (34 per- cent) reported favorable business ratings. Those numbers increased slightly in 2010, but 2011 re- spondents gave the most favorable business ratings (43.4 percent positive) since 2007. Another favorable indication is the accuracy dem- onstrated in yearly predictions and the subsequent results. With the exception of those predicting a fair year, responses from last year's forecast results ver- sus this year's actual results are all within 5 percent, and most forecast discrepancies erred toward being overly pessimistic. • Excellent: 1.6 percent forecast; 5.7 percent actual (+4.1 percent difference); • Very Good: 12 percent forecast; 13.2 percent actual (+1.2 percent difference); • Good: 24.8 percent forecast; 24.5 percent actual (-0.3 percent difference); • Poor: 17.6 percent forecast; 21.7 percent actual (+4.1 percent difference). • Fair: 44.0 percent forecast; 34.9 percent actual (-9.1 percent difference); and From a regional perspective, producers in the Northeast were the most likely to report positive