GeoWorld

GeoWorld October 2012

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As a result, GEOINT analysis must add to its standard collection decks of airfields and harbors to include tracking the activities of individuals and groups. This presents a new series of challenges in trying to link human behavior to location and activities in time to better understand where they are as well as what they're doing. The intelligence community has a lot to learn from the commercial entertainment industry, which appears to do this well. For example, the ability of sportscasters to show within seconds a similar last-second touchdown pass by an NFL quarterback in a playoff game always impresses the viewing audience. This ability requires a different data-capture and tagging scheme tied to individuals, events and time that eludes our national intelligence-collection capabilities. Human Terrain and Social Media Improve Predictive Capability Geospatial analysts possess an unparalleled ability to surge linear GEOINT production capabilities, especially large military operations, in response to a crisis. The associated shift in mapping and analytical resources, however, produces inefficiencies through duplication, while other areas such as global watch and event tracking lack attention. For example, as was widely reported in media world- wide, while taking down Osama Bin Laden, people were surprised by the chatter on Twitter in which locals talked of hearing helicopters and explosions in the area, unknowingly "live tweeting" the raid. Looking backward, would it be fair to say that operational con- cepts haven't incorporated modern human-information and personal-computing technologies? Globally, humanity is beginning to stress the natural environment. Gas and fresh-water supplies are becom- ing limited. Economies are at risk. In addition, the increased threat posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the role of non-state actors are challenging intelligence-collection capabilities. But at the heart of all these issues is the behavior of individuals and how they interact with their environ- ment as part of the larger social network. People are voluntarily putting personal information on Facebook and posting vacation videos on YouTube. Security cameras are filming our streets in real time using the Internet. Why isn't the intelligence community trying to harness these open sources of information for appli- cation to national-security capabilities that already are overburdened from a collection standpoint? In fact, intelligence personnel are just beginning to harness the power of GEOINT from a more global perspective. Today's national intelligence apparatus is undergoing a transformation that includes social media and analysis of the human terrain: the political, cultural, religious, economic or environmental factors influencing "Uh oh, now I'm the guy who liveblogged the Osama raid without knowing it." A Twitter user living in Abbottabad, Pakistan, unknowingly chronicled the Bin Laden operation as it unfolded. Many were surprised by the chatter, pointing to the need to better incorporate available citizen information and personal technologies. how small groups or individuals behave. The collection of human-terrain information is in its infancy. As a result, new privacy issues arise daily regarding the collection and use of personal location information in relation to law enforcement and intelligence gather- ing. The GEOINT community needs to develop new laws, policies and guidelines for the collection, storage and use of location-based information. So although progress is being made, opportunities to accelerate this transformation need to be further examined. The GEOINT community has a long-standing record of being able to transform itself. It has worked together to bring about the changes necessary to keep nations secure, whether shifting from hardcopy to digital or integrating imagery and mapping disciplines. Today the community is again challenged in terms of relevance, and it must manage complex solutions with a well-thought-out engineering and integration process that maximizes limited fiscal resources. There's a new normal for intelligence. It's harvesting the unclassified, often citizen-gathered, cooperatively shared information and technologies used in people's personal lives and applying them to the nation's greatest security challenges. Together, the geospatial-intelligence community can develop the analytical tradecraft neces- sary to capitalize on these new capabilities and shift from reporting to improved prediction. Joseph Obermeier is vice president of Mission Analysis Business Solutions at TASC Inc.; e-mail: Joseph.Obermeier@TASC.com. O C TOBE R 2O12 / WWW . GEOPLA CE . C OM 25

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