Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/620649
JANUARY 2016 24 THE JOURNAL BY BRUCE SAVAGE COMMUNICATIONS CONSULTANT It Doesn't Take A Detective… Sometimes it doesn't take a detective like Sher- lock Holmes or Hercules Poirot to see the real story behind a developing situation. That's the case with the manufactured and modular housing industries as they enter 2016. Seemingly unrelated items, when viewed in context with each other, form a more direct picture than most people think. Take for instance the upcoming 2016 Louisville Manufactured Housing Show being held January 20-22. Although the Show has grown into one of the preeminent industry shows – with increasing attendance and importance (especially over the past several years) – the 2016 Louisville Show promises to be another banner event. While the Show has expanded into larger exhibit space than ever before, the Show is totally SOLD OUT, demonstrating how the manufactured and modu- lar housing industries are rebounding in impressive and dynamic ways. At this time, registration numbers for the Show are running ahead of where the totals were a year ago. If these registration trends continue, there will be a record turnout of industry personnel taking part to see and hear the latest information of where manufactured and modular housing in heading. At the same time, the latest production num- bers for manufactured and modular homes shows a continued rebound. Numbers for October 2015 show that 6,824 new manufactured homes were shipped, an increase of 4.9 percent from October 2014. Compared with the same month last year, single-section home shipments were down 2.3 percent, while shipments of multi-section homes were up 11.6 percent. Total floors shipped in Oc- tober 2015 were 10,666, an increase of 7.3 per- cent compared with October 2014. Compared with the prior year, 2015 recorded shipment increases in the first ten months of 2015 totaled 58,865 compared with 54,664 homes in 2014, a net increase of 7.7 percent. Given the overall sluggishness of the national economy, this total definitely was impressive. The number of plants reporting production in October 2015 was 122 and the number of active corporations was 37, both unchanged from the previous month's num- bers. In mid-December the Federal Reserve finally voted to increase the federal interest rate by one- quarter of a percent in an effort the economy to normal. After months of delay caused by uncer- tainty about the overall economy, the Federal Re- serve voted to raise the interest rate it charges to major lending institutions as a way of weaning the nation off of cheap interest rates. While there is no immediate link with national mortgage rates, the rise of the interest rate could lead to higher mortgage rates. But the Fed Reserve gave no pre- cise timeframe for further action (it's been the first increase in almost a decade). Instead this imme- diate rise is more of an indication that federal eco- nomic policymakers have given a vote of confidence in the American economy as the rest of the world's economies struggle. The American economy is estimated to be growing by 2.0 to 2.5 percent per year, accompanied by a declining un- employment situation. Again, it's not the most obvious clue of the state of the American eco- nomic outlook, but it signals a more robust eco- nomic forecast than seen in many months, if not years. Another Washington development also gives some important insight for the manufactured and modular housing industries. The U.S. House of Representatives has voted to overturn federal reg- ulations that have harmed consumers in rural America seeking to purchase or sell a manufac- tured home. H.R. 650 was passed with bipartisan support in a 263-162 vote. The bill is currently part of an omnibus spending bill that is likely to be voted on shortly in order to avoid a government shutdown. Newly elected Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is working hard to get this omnibus spending bill passed in order to keep the govern- ment running. If the omnibus bill is approved with the reform legislation included, it would be a major victory in opening up financing for rural homes, including manufactured homes that have a heavy presence in the rural section of the Amer- ican housing marketplace. Ever indication is that Speaker Ryan will prevail in his efforts to pass the omnibus spending bill. One of the last clues to be aware of in looking at the future of manufactured and modular hous- ing is a little harder to nail down, but it's there for all to see. While the manufactured housing in- dustry has talked a lot about embracing a national image enhancement program to promote more home sales, the effort has never gained the needed mass to move it into action. As one who has been involved in this effort for the past 20+ years, I can say honestly that the situation seems to be chang- ing. Where once the primary objection seemed to focus of competitive advantage (the big boys would run such a campaign to their own compet- itive advantage) the industry sentiment now seems to understand that in today's marketplace requires more and more information is required to be given to consumers and that such an image campaign would be one of the best ways to provide such in- formation. I've noticed a marked increase in the Internet and Web presence of industry members who now recognize that an educated consumer is a good thing for manufactured and modular hous- ing industries. Both manufactured and modular homes represent real outstanding value in today's housing marketplace, with tremendous advances being made in the homes being offered today. People need to know these facts and no one else will do it except for the manufactured and modu- lar housing industries. Again, it doesn't take a detective to see the positive trends for the future of today's manufac- tured and modular homes. Just look around you! Bruce Savage is a national communications consultant to both for-profit and non-for-profit clients around the country. He formed Savage Communications Strategies five yeas ago to assist these clients with innovative approaches to challenging communications situations. He also recently formed www.Amer- icanHousingAdvocates.com with Suzanne Felber to highlight on new social media how manufactured homes offer tremendous opportunities to millions of Americans seeking quality housing at affordable prices. Savage served for more than 16 years as the vice president of communications for the Manufactured Housing Institute and he continues to work with manufactured housing in- dustry members with various types of communications and marketing pro- grams. He can be reached at 202-664-4512 or bruce@savagestrategies.com. T J