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engineering for a better world Enjoy Quality GEA decanters and separators stand for maximum coffee and tea yield and high clarification efficiency. GEA Westfalia Separator Group GmbH Werner-Habig-Straße 1, 59302 Oelde, Germany Phone: +49 2522 77-0, ws.info@gea.com www.gea.com BE-04-003 It also points to the "urgent need" for an "arabica global plan" in which all the gaps and needs are identified along with conditions necessary to solve them. "There needs to be private-public part- nership with a map of what the major players are doing for funding and coordination of the transfer of know-how," he said. Global consumption exceeded production the past two har- vests and there is another deficit looming in the coming year, ac- cording to the International Coffee Council (ICC). In its March 2016 report, ICC staff estimated arabica production declined .1% in 2014/15 compared to the previous harvest. Robusta, which thrives in heat, showed a 3.7% gain. The 2015/16 coffee crop is estimated at 143.4 million bags. Consumption rose 1.2% to 152.1 million bags in 2015 (up sharply from 2012 when consumption was estimated at 143.3 million bags). "The biggest potential is emerging markets and ex- porting countries," according to ICO, and there is still "strong demand in many countries, particularly some traditional markets" such as the US (up 3.2% since 2012) and Japan (up 2.4% since 2012). Overall growth of consumption in the importing countries has averaged 2% per year, according to ICO. The organization predicts growth rates of at least 1.5% to 2.5% per year for the foreseeable future which means producers must come up with an additional 25 to 45 million extra bags by 2025. The reasons for recent production declines are principally weather related. However this is compounded by the fact that prices continue to fall (see chart, pg. 28) which makes it much more difficult for growers to finance best practices like increas- ing shade (which decreases yield) and to make capital improve- ments such as the installation of irrigation systems essential to mitigate the impact of diminished rainfall. Traders say that doubling the price of green coffee to $3 a pound would make a huge difference in the ability of arabica growers to overcome the challenges they face. Descending prices Scott Merle is v.p. sales green coffee at Distant Lands Coffee. "I'm generally a doomsayer when it comes to where we'll get cof- fee in the future, having a greater understanding of all the things that can go wrong that negatively impact volume," says Merle. "Everything in my opinion will depend on two factors – price and viability. I believe that if end coffee prices remain tied to NY commodity pricing, and do not dramatically increase and then re- main above levels at or above the $3 mark, we will not see any significant increase in specialty coffee production," he said. "I don't see any silver linings or silver bullets that will save the coffee world," said Merle. Julio Sera is senior risk management consultant at INTL FC- Stone. He offers a more optimistic view: "I personally believe in the economic principal of creative destruction. I don't feel that we will necessarily "need" a doubling of global coffee out- put to compensate for consumption increases. The reason for that of course, is the advent of the single serve delivery mecha- nism (creativity). Millennials especially, prefer a simple "one touch" solution that eliminates waste, keeps things clean and simple…and, even helps promote sustainability and traceability to a degree; the latter being a quality that Millennials are staunch supporters of. Therefore, with a more efficient consumptive vehicle and substantially less inherent waste…I believe the jury