Overdrive Magazine | Trucking Business News & Owner Operator Info
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/757641
32 | Overdrive | December 2016 EYES ON THE PRIZE demand for remaining trucks in usable condition." As the ELD mandate gets closer, Hepler wouldn't be surprised to see "older trucks like this going to $30K to $50K retail, especially aerodynamic trucks with electronic motors. Those will be not just gold but diamonds, and might go even higher." Morin agrees. "Right up close to the mandate, demand will go through the roof, and there'll be price-gouging." Presenting at the Used Truck Association's annual conference in November, Steve Tam of ACT Research predicted some private carriers and owner-operators will go for pre-2000 trucks. "The ELD impact should be a small positive" for the used truck market in 2017's fourth quarter, Tam said. Avondale Partners' Donald Broughton, also speaking at the UTA conference, likewise expected some increased demand for pre-2000 tractors next year. He believed the number of owner-operators who will purchase spe- cifically due to the mandate isn't high. Overdrive's November polling results suggest a different assessment: 39 per- cent of readers indicated they are look- ing for a 1999 or older unit or would be by next year unless the mandate is overturned. UTA President Craig Kendall, also president of Peterbilt of Knoxville in Tennessee, still sees strong demand for pre-2004 pre-EGR engines in "the right spec and useful mileage." A couple of Dealer and market-analyst sources report little in the way of information on retail sales of pre-2000 model-year trucks. So it's diffi cult to accurately gauge whether prices were affected by the introduction of the ELD mandate fi nal rule, containing the pre-2000 model-year exemption. However, even with notable month- to-month changes, wholesale auction data for the past two years show that the older truck prices have declined at a slower rate than the newer trucks. The graph shows a narrowing difference between average prices for 1995-99 and 2000-04 trucks in some of the months since the mandate's introduction in December 2015. The data comes from Overdrive sister equipment-auction information purveyor TopBid.com. Auctions can be a source for a big selection of older trucks. As with any truck purchase, be certain you can document major maintenance and other vehicle-history considerations such as engine hours, mileage, application of use and more. OLDER TRUCKS HOLDING VALUE BETTER SINCE ELD ANNOUNCEMENT That's the overall pre-2000-truck share of total oper- ating Class 8s on the road today, according to RigDig Business Intelligence, a sister business of Overdrive. Such small numbers – and smaller non-ELD carriers' control of more than half of the pre-2000 units – leads FTR Transportation Intelligence COO Jonathan Starks to conclude that the market for such vehicles "will be very sparse. If somebody has an old truck that is in that good of shape and they don't like the ELD rule, they aren't selling." 11.8% $18,000 $17,000 $16,000 $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 $12,000 $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 FMCSA introduced the ELD mandate with its pre-2000 model-year exemption Dec. 9, 2015. 1995-99 model-year trucks at auction, average price 2000-04 model-year trucks at auction, average price TopBid.com survey of equipment auctions across the U.S. 2014 2015 2016 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Used truck prices