Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/772143
AGGREGATES MANAGER / January 2017 15 ers were the next most optimistic with more than 50 percent calling for either an excellent or very good year. Crushed stone producers were slightly less optimistic with 40 percent anticipating either an excellent or very good year. Production reports After 2015, when more than half of survey respon- dents said they had increased production volumes, growth in volumes was more modest. A total of 35.5 percent of respondents said they grew production volumes in 2016, compared to 17.8 percent who said volumes shrank. The number of respondents who reported lower volumes in 2016 is more than double the size of those who reported lower volumes in 2015. The average production increase was 13.7 percent — 8.5 percent lower than 2015 — while the average decrease was 25.1 percent — 11.6 percent lower than 2015. Once again, large producers reported the best production results. One in two respondents at sites producing 3 million to 5 million tons said production volumes increased in 2016. They were followed by respondents at sites with 1 million to 3 million tons (42.1 percent), more than 5 million tons (40.7 per- cent), 500,001 to 1 million tons (31.6 percent), and up to 500,000 tons (28.6 percent). Those smallest sites were also the most likely to report decreased 2016 Business Rating Trends Aggregate Production Volumes Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies 2016 v. 2015 2017 Forecast v. 2016 While business conditions in 2016 came in slightly below last year's expecta- tions, they were still quite strong from a historical point. The percentage of operators reporting excel- lent business conditions in 2016 dropped slight- ly from 2015, while the percentage of operators reporting fair conditions grew by nearly 5 percent. This bears out responses from the monthly Aggre- gates Industry Outlook surveys, which have in- dicated spotty demand throughout the U.S. Look- ing forward, respondents have predicted what would be the strongest business conditions since Aggre- gates Manager began tracking them in 2004. Excellent Very Good Good Fair Poor 2004 10.40% 32.40% 41.70% 11.60% 3.90% 2005 12.40% 29.70% 36.60% 17.40% 3.90% 2006 12.90% 32.20% 35.90% 15.10% 3.90% 2007 6.60% 18.60% 35.70% 28.50% 10.50% 2008 2.30% 9.80% 30.30% 35.80% 21.80% 2009 2.90% 7.20% 23.90% 38.80% 27.30% 2010 1.60% 11.20% 22.40% 38.40% 26.40% 2011 5.70% 13.20% 24.50% 34.90% 21.70% 2012 6.90% 10.90% 32.70% 37.60% 11.90% 2013 3.80% 21.90% 37.10% 30.50% 6.70% 2014 8.90% 26.60% 40.30% 20.20% 4.00% 2015 12.00% 23.20% 45.40% 15.70% 3.70% 2016 11.10% 28.90% 36.30% 20.00% 3.70% 2017 (Forecast) 13.3% 34.80% 39.30% 11.90% 0.70% Due to rounding, all numbers may not equal 100 percent of respondents. 35.5% 46.7% 17.8% Stay the same: 47.4% Increase: 48.1% Decrease: 4.5% was the average production increase in 2016 13.7 % of respondents in the South said 2016 production increased Nearly half expect poor business conditions in 2017 Less than 1 % of respondents in the West expect higher production levels in 2017 More than half is the predicted average production increase in 2017 14.5% in three say their capital expenditures will increase this year Nearly one 35.5% 46.7% 17.8% 47.4% Stay the same: 48.1% Increase: 4.5% Decrease: Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies