Aggregates Manager Digital Magazine
Issue link: http://read.dmtmag.com/i/772143
16 AGGREGATES MANAGER / January 2017 FORECAST 2017 volumes with one in four respondents saying 2016 production volumes were lower in 2016 than 2015. Operations producing crushed stone and sand and gravel were the most likely to report increased production volumes (44.9 percent), with an ap- proximate 10-percent margin over sand and gravel producers (35.3 percent) and crushed stone producers (34.3 percent). By region, respondents in the South, by far, were the most likely to enjoy gains in production volumes. Nearly one in two (49.0 percent) reported increased production in 2016. They were followed by the West (35.5 percent), North Central (25.7 percent), and Northeast (12.4 per- cent). The Northeast was the only region to have a greater proportion of respon- dents note a decrease in production (18.8 percent) than an increase. Those who reported an increase there noted gains of 1 to 9 percent. By comparison, more than half of respondents in the South benefited from 10- to 14-percent gains, while an additional 12 percent noted an increase of 30 percent or more. Production forecasts Looking at 2017, respondents antici- pate a strong year for production; 48.1 percent said volumes will be up, 47.4 said they would be stable, and just 4.5 percent said they would fall. Optimism crossed size ranges and commodities, with only a few nota- ble concerns raised. Just over one in five (21.4 percent) respondents at sites producing 3 million to 5 million tons anticipate a decrease in production, but more than double that amount (42.9 per- cent) call for an increase. Among crushed stone and sand and gravel respondents, 12.2 percent said production would de- cline, but 49.0 percent of that group said it would increase. By region, the South looks to extend its strong record, with 54.9 percent of respondents who predict higher volumes. They are followed by the West (51.6 percent), North Central (42.9 per- cent), and Northeast (31.2 percent). Respondents who predicted an increase estimated an average increase of 14.5 percent — 2 percent lower than 2012 Increased 28.6% Decreased 35.7% Stayed about the same 35.7% 2013 Increased 31.6% Decreased 26.3% Stayed about the same 42.1% 2014 Increased 78.9% Decreased 0.0% Stayed about the same 21.1% 2015 Increased 54.5% Decreased 9.1% Stayed about the same 36.4% 2016 Increased 12.4% Decreased 18.8% Stayed about the same 68.8% 2017* Increase 31.2% Decrease 6.3% Stay about the same 62.5% 2012 Increased 20.0% Decreased 28.0% Stayed about the same 52.0% 2013 Increased 50.0% Decreased 25.0% Stayed about the same 25.0% 2014 Increased 56.4% Decreased 12.8% Stayed about the same 30.8% 2015 Increased 48.2% Decreased 7.4% Stayed about the same 44.4% 2016 Increased 25.7% Decreased 20.0% Stayed about the same 54.3% 2017* Increase 52.9% Decrease 8.5% Stay about the same 48.6% 2012 Increased 28.6% Decreased 35.7% Stayed about the same 35.7% 2013 Increased 31.6% Decreased 26.3% Stayed about the same 42.1% 2014 Increased 78.9% Decreased 0.0% Stayed about the same 21.1% 2015 Increased 54.5% Decreased 9.1% Stayed about the same 36.4% 2016 Increased 12.4% Decreased 18.8% Stayed about the same 68.8% 2017* Increase 31.2% Decrease 6.3% Stay about the same 62.5% 2012 Increased 20.0% Decreased 28.0% Stayed about the same 52.0% 2013 Increased 50.0% Decreased 25.0% Stayed about the same 25.0% 2014 Increased 56.4% Decreased 12.8% Stayed about the same 30.8% 2015 Increased 48.2% Decreased 7.4% Stayed about the same 44.4% 2016 Increased 25.7% Decreased 20.0% Stayed about the same 54.3% 2017* Increase 52.9% Decrease 8.5% Stay about the same 48.6% 2012 Increased 30.0% Decreased 30.0% Stayed about the same 40.0% 2013 Increased 48.6% Decreased 11.4% Stayed about the same 40.0% 2014 Increased 69.8% Decreased 4.6% Stayed about the same 25.6% 2015 Increased 46.3% Decreased 7.4% Stayed about the same 46.3% 2016 Increased 49.0% Decreased 15.7% Stayed about the same 35.3% 2017* Increase 54.9% Decrease 2.0% Stay about the same 43.1% 2012 Increased 59.7% Decreased 9.1% Stayed about the same 31.8% 2013 Increased 47.6% Decreased 14.3% Stayed about the same 38.1% 2014 Increased 27.3% Decreased 13.6% Stayed about the same 59.1% 2015 Increased 62.1% Decreased 10.3% Stayed about the same 27.6% 2016 Increased 35.5% Decreased 19.3% Stayed about the same 45.2% 2017* Increase 51.6% Decrease 3.2% Stay about the same 45.2% 2012 Increased 30.0% Decreased 30.0% Stayed about the same 40.0% 2013 Increased 48.6% Decreased 11.4% Stayed about the same 40.0% 2014 Increased 69.8% Decreased 4.6% Stayed about the same 25.6% 2015 Increased 46.3% Decreased 7.4% Stayed about the same 46.3% 2016 Increased 49.0% Decreased 15.7% Stayed about the same 35.3% 2017* Increase 54.9% Decrease 2.0% Stay about the same 43.1% 2012 Increased 59.7% Decreased 9.1% Stayed about the same 31.8% 2013 Increased 47.6% Decreased 14.3% Stayed about the same 38.1% 2014 Increased 27.3% Decreased 13.6% Stayed about the same 59.1% 2015 Increased 62.1% Decreased 10.3% Stayed about the same 27.6% 2016 Increased 35.5% Decreased 19.3% Stayed about the same 45.2% 2017* Increase 51.6% Decrease 3.2% Stay about the same 45.2% Regional Production Results: North Central Region Regional Production Results: Southern Region Regional Production Results: Western Region Regional Production Results: Northeastern Region Source: Aggregates Manager Forecast Studies *Forecast figures