PriCe outLook
Heating Fuels
Price Outlook
Fewsurprisesaswintertakeshold
by keitH reid
A
2013 heatINg seasoN, FUEL
OIL NEWS contacted Brian Milne, Schneider Electric's
(Formerly Televent DTN) energy editor for his views
on the heating fuels pricing front in the first quarter of 2013.
s we Move through the
FON: Were there any surprises as this heating season shaped
up?
Milne: There have been no real surprises since the fall. Prices
have largely traded within the range that we thought they would.
Look at the different markets: natural gas— a lot of supply; propane—a lot of supply; and distillates supply with heating oil and
diesel have been lower than usual, but demand has been weak,
which has kept a cap on heating oil prices. So it's moved largely
in line with what we thought.
FON: What are the specifics on the propane front?
14
February2013| FueLOILNeWS|www.fueloilnews.com
Milne: Propane is benefiting from all of the development in
the tight formations. There are a lot more exports going out of the
Houston market, and that has been supporting price, but overall
the extra supply has really kept the lid on propane prices. That
has limited the upside.
FON: Is there any pressure on natural gas?
Milne: With natural gas, coming out of the summer there was
greater demand than anticipated because it was hot and that helped
work down some of the surplus supply, but we still have an abundance of supply and that did keep natural gas prices limited on the
upside for a while. But, we have gotten prices moving higher on
cold-weather expectations. Some people are also linking this terrorist attack in Algeria to higher natural gas prices, but that might
be a little bit of a stretch. But overall with natural gas, it is going to
be difficult for them to get over $4 dollars this year unless you see a
lot more demand with wells being shut in favor of oil or something
