Good Fruit Grower

March 1

Issue link:

Contents of this Issue


Page 35 of 47

GOOD POINT Desmond O���Rourke, Belrose, Inc. Forecasting future Asian import demand Analysts believe that future growth markets for fresh fruit will be in Asia. L eading deciduous fruit exporters around the world are seeing demand in many traditional markets either stagnant or declining. They agree that Asian markets offer the best future growth prospects because of their large populations and rapidly rising incomes. A new study entitled "Asian Import Demand for Apples, Pears, Sweet Cherries and Kiwifruit, Potential to 2020," published by Belrose, Inc., set out to quantify the volume of imports of each fresh fruit that could be imported by 16 different Asian countries by 2020 under reasonable assumptions about future growth of per capita incomes and populations. The 16 Asian countries studied are highly diverse. Populations range from giants like China and India to minnows like Hong Kong and Singapore. Population growth rates vary from 1.4 percent annually in South Asia to close to zero growth in Japan or Taiwan. World Bank data show average per capita incomes (in terms of U.S. dollar purchasing power) ranging from less than $5,000 in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, to over $30,000 in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan. Even more pertinent, Asian countries have differed widely in the level of imports of the different fruits, in the volatility of changes from one year to the next, and in the long-term rates of import growth. For example, countries like Thailand and Indonesia suffered sharp setbacks to fresh apple imports in the years following the Asian financial crisis of 1997, but have grown strongly since (see ���Asia���s apple imports���). India���s imports have surged since that market was opened in 1998-1999, while those of Taiwan have shown little growth. In the 2008-2010 period, per capita imports of fresh apples ranged from one-sixth of a pound in India to almost 13 pounds in Taiwan. But with India having a population 53 times as large as Taiwan, India's potential imports are many times greater than those of Taiwan. Economic growth Our analyses showed that the rate of growth of imports of these fresh fruits will be strongly influenced by the rate of economic growth. For example, if real percapita gross domestic product grows between 2010 and 2020 at the same fast rate as it did between 2000 and 2010, we can expect these 16 countries to increase imports of fresh apples by about 56 million 40-pound boxes (76%), fresh pears by over 17 million 44-pound boxes (90%), and fresh sweet cherries by almost 11 million 20-pound boxes (153%). However, if their economies grow at only half the 2000-2010 rate, these 16 countries could still increase their imports of fresh apples by 26 million boxes (38%), fresh pears by 9.5 million boxes, and fresh sweet cherries by 5 million boxes (73%). In general, substantial increases in apple imports can be expected even in countries with relatively low income levels. However, increases in sweet cherry imports will come primarily in countries with large numbers of highincome consumers, like China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. These forecasts indicate the potential volume growth of major Asian markets. However, they do not show how lucrative any particular market will be to any particular exporter. For example, in countries like Pakistan or COLD AIR DRAIN�� Crop Production Services We are your chemical and fertilizer source for orchard, vineyard, and row crop products. Organic or conventional. Call us today for your spring fertilizer and dormant spray needs. Beau Anderson I 509.237.8642 I Ron Baugher I 509.237.8102 I Steve Motzkus I 509.760.8262 I Covering North Central Washington 36 MARCH 1, 2013 GOOD FRUIT GROWER Frost Protection COST EFFECTIVE! Most systems have a 100% payback in the first year. Minimal site prep. Fuel efficient. No maintenance contracts. POWERFUL! State-of-the-art propeller sends cold air up approximately 300 ft. VERSATILE! Size & power options available to meet your needs. Targeted protection for frost pockets, swales, slopes, valleys, etc. Use alone or with wind machines, water, or heaters. FREE COMPUTERIZED FROST ANALYSIS & PRICE QUOTE! SHuR FARMS�� Frost Protection 1890 N. 8th Street, Colton, CA 92324 877.842.9688 or 909.825.2035

Articles in this issue

Links on this page

Archives of this issue

view archives of Good Fruit Grower - March 1