www.fueloilnews.com | FUEL OIL NEWS | MAY 2014 13
• During the April-through-September summer driving
season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to
average $3.57/gallon. The projected monthly national average
regular retail gasoline price falls from $3.66/gal in May to $3.46/
gal in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to
average $3.45/gal in 2014 and $3.37/gal in 2015, compared with
$3.51/gal in 2013. The July 2014 New York Harbor reformulated
blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) futures contract
averaged $2.85/gal for the five trading days ending April 3,
2014. Based on the market value of futures and options con-
tracts for this key petroleum component of gasoline, there is a
3% probability that its price at expiration will exceed $3.35/gal,
consistent with a monthly average regular-grade gasoline retail
price exceeding $4.00/gal in July 2014 (see EIA Summer Fuels
Outlook slideshow).
• The North Sea Brent crude oil spot price in March averaged
near $110 per barrel for the ninth consecutive month, while West
Texas Intermediate crude oil prices remained flat near $101/bbl.
New pipeline capacity from the Midwest into the Gulf Coast
helped reduce inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub
to 27 million barrels by the end of March 2014, the lowest level
since November 2009. The discount of WTI crude oil to Brent
crude oil, which averaged more than $13/bbl from November
through January, fell to $7/bbl in March. EIA expects the WTI
discount to average $9/bbl in 2014 and $11/bbl in 2015.
• Natural gas working inventories on March 28, 2014, were
0.82 trillion cubic feet, 0.88 Tcf (52%) below the level at the same
time a year ago and 0.99 Tcf (55%) below the five-year average
(2009-13). Henry Hub natural gas spot prices were volatile over
the past few months, increasing from $3.95 per million British
thermal units on January 10 to a high of $8.15/MMBtu on
February 10, before falling back to $4.61/MMBtu on February
27, and then bouncing back up to $7.98/MMBtu on March 4.
EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which
averaged $3.73/MMBtu in 2013, will average $4.44/MMBtu in
2014 and $4.11/MMBtu in 2015.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Highlights
Release Date: April 8, 2014
